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Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #17
Name: TYPHOON CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 17 MAY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 17 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #033
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 17 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #033
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON CHANCHU (CALOY) MAINTAINED ITS CATEGORY THREE STATUS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA...INNER BANDS MOVING INTO
THE HONG KONG-EASTERN GUANGDONG AREA...STRONG WINDS AND RAINS
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA...INNER BANDS MOVING INTO
THE HONG KONG-EASTERN GUANGDONG AREA...STRONG WINDS AND RAINS
EXPECTED.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core (eye + eyewall) CHANCHU is expected to
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core (eye + eyewall) CHANCHU is expected to
continue make landfall along Eastern Guangdong around midnight Thurs-
day (May 18), passing very close to Shantou-Chaoan, China around
2 AM tomorrow. It shall then accelerate NE later across the pro-
vince of Fujian as a weakened Tropical Storm. Its closest approach
to the East of Hong Kong shall be at a distance of about 200 km.
around 6 PM today. Hong Kong residents are advised to take precau-
tionary measures and continue monitoring the progress of this
Category 3 typhoon...mapping out disaster preparedness plans
during CHANCHU's approach is necessary to avoid loss of lives
and properties.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core is just a hundred of kilometers to the
south of Guangdong, with most of its strongest winds and heaviest
rainfall situated along the core's SE and southern quadrant. Its
inner and outer rainbands is now affecting Southern China particu-
larly Hong Kong, Eastern Guangdong and Western Fujian and continues
to cover the entire northern half of the South China Sea. Deterio-
rating weather conditions along Southern China is expected today
until early tomorrow as the typhoon makes its final approach. These
rainbands particularly the inner bands will continue to bring mode-
rate to heavy rainfall with moderate to strong, damaging winds and
could produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes over
the affected areas. Residents residing along the coastal beachfront
areas of Southern China are advised to seek higher grounds due to
possible high waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from
9 to 12 feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains along
the some sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Low Pressure Area (aka. Tropical
Disturbance) over the Caroline Islands or near Palau and Yap
Island has dissipated and is no longer has the potential of
organizing.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
to the East of Hong Kong shall be at a distance of about 200 km.
around 6 PM today. Hong Kong residents are advised to take precau-
tionary measures and continue monitoring the progress of this
Category 3 typhoon...mapping out disaster preparedness plans
during CHANCHU's approach is necessary to avoid loss of lives
and properties.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core is just a hundred of kilometers to the
south of Guangdong, with most of its strongest winds and heaviest
rainfall situated along the core's SE and southern quadrant. Its
inner and outer rainbands is now affecting Southern China particu-
larly Hong Kong, Eastern Guangdong and Western Fujian and continues
to cover the entire northern half of the South China Sea. Deterio-
rating weather conditions along Southern China is expected today
until early tomorrow as the typhoon makes its final approach. These
rainbands particularly the inner bands will continue to bring mode-
rate to heavy rainfall with moderate to strong, damaging winds and
could produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes over
the affected areas. Residents residing along the coastal beachfront
areas of Southern China are advised to seek higher grounds due to
possible high waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from
9 to 12 feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains along
the some sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Low Pressure Area (aka. Tropical
Disturbance) over the Caroline Islands or near Palau and Yap
Island has dissipated and is no longer has the potential of
organizing.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.9º N...LONGITUDE 115.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 300 KM (160 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.9º N...LONGITUDE 115.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 300 KM (160 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 410 KM (222 NM) SSW OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 570 KM (308 NM) WNW OF LAOAG CITY, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 938 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 3
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,000 KM (540 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM WED MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 938 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 3
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,000 KM (540 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM WED MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY: 21.3N 115.9E / 185-230 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 23.3N 116.5E / 150-185 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 19.5N 115.4E.
^ LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL, COMPACT EYE
SURROUNDED BY A WEAKENING OUTER EYEWALL. RECENT SATE-
LLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY CHANCHU HAS BEGUN TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST
OF TAIWAN. THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OF TY CHANCHU IS LIMITING THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WEST OF GUAM IS FURTHER
MODIFYING THIS STEERING RIDGE, FLATTENING IT FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. TY
CHANCHU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD CHINA, AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
HONG KONG AFTER 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS INLAND,
AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU
48...(more info)
>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY: 21.3N 115.9E / 185-230 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 23.3N 116.5E / 150-185 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 19.5N 115.4E.
^ LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL, COMPACT EYE
SURROUNDED BY A WEAKENING OUTER EYEWALL. RECENT SATE-
LLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY CHANCHU HAS BEGUN TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST
OF TAIWAN. THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OF TY CHANCHU IS LIMITING THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WEST OF GUAM IS FURTHER
MODIFYING THIS STEERING RIDGE, FLATTENING IT FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. TY
CHANCHU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD CHINA, AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
HONG KONG AFTER 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS INLAND,
AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU
48...(more info)
>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):
Shantou-Chaoan, China Area {along Guangdong-Fujian Border}:
9PM Wed-5AM Thu.
Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where
the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times
on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT
changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life/death decisions.
Shantou-Chaoan, China Area {along Guangdong-Fujian Border}:
9PM Wed-5AM Thu.
Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where
the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times
on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT
changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life/death decisions.
_________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
_______________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
_______________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
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