Friday, May 19, 2006

TS CHANCHU (CALOY) - Final Update


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Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #20 **FINAL**
Name: TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 18 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #038 (FINAL)
_______________________________________________________________________
  
CHANCHU (CALOY) WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND BECOMES AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTLINE OF
FUJIAN PROVINCE.

...THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE/WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHANCHU is expected to continue moving
across Coastal Fujian Province throughout the day and shall
move back into the sea, via East China Sea. Residents of
Southern China (Fujian Province) are advised to take precau-
tionary measures as the remnants of this storm passes by...
mapping out disaster preparedness plans during CHANCHU's
approach must be completed now to avoid loss of lives
and properties.

+ EFFECTS: Remnants of CHANCHU's rainbands will continue to
affect most of Fujian Province today. These rainbands parti-
cularly the inner bands will continue to bring moderate to
heavy rainfall with moderate to strong, damaging winds and
could produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected areas. Residents residing along the
coastal beachfront areas of Southern China are advised to
seek higher grounds due to possible high waves from the sea.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 1 to 3 feet can be expected
along the path of the weakening storm, thereby advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
Improving weather conditions can be expected tomorrow as
the system moves away NE-ward.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 18 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER {NOAA SATFIX}: LATITUDE 27.6º N...LONGITUDE 119.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55 NM) WSW OF WENZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 2:  175 KM (95 NM) NNE OF FUZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 430 KM (232 NM) SSW OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: FUJIAN PROVINCE
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K FINAL TRACKING MAP: 11 AM THU MAY 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 12 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
           
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: N/A
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 MAY: N/A

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 MAY POSITION: 24.5N 118.1E.
^ N/A...(more info)

>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth, 
   rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain 
   oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs 
   are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the 
      highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more 
      explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on 
   this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
            Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
            Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete final details on the TS CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



Posted by MJ Klein at 06:45 0 comments

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Weather Report for Today

The rain is gone in the Hsinchu area, at least for now. We will have
some high winds which are preventing me from riding my bicycle today.
Some areas of southern Taiwan had typhoon warnings yesterday and last
night, but our area (Hsinchu) does not.

Posted by MJ Klein at 13:39 0 comments

TY CHANCHU (CALOY) just made landfall over Southern China...[Update #19]


Yahoo! Groups My Groups | typhoon2000asiapac_stormlist Main Page

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #19
Name: TYPHOON CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 18 MAY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 18 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #037
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TYPHOON CHANCHU (CALOY) WEAKENS INTO A CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON AS
IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG SOUTHWESTERN FUJIAN OR JUST BETWEEN THE
CITIES OF SHANTOU AND XIAMEN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHANCHU is expected to continue moving across
Fujian Province as a weakened Tropical Storm later today. Resi-
dents of Southern China (Fujian Provinces) are advised to take
precautionary measures as the Category 1 typhoon passes by...
mapping out disaster preparedness plans during CHANCHU's approach
must be completed now to avoid loss of lives and properties.

+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's inner core has begun to decay while inter-
acting across the Fujian landscape..however, strong winds and
heavy rains can still be felt across SW and Southern Fujian
today. The inner and outer rainbands continues to spread across
Southern China particularly Hong Kong, Eastern Guangdong and
Western Fujian. These rainbands particularly the inner bands
will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with moderate
to strong, damaging winds and could produce flying debris, life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes over the affected areas. Resi-
dents residing along the coastal beachfront areas of Southern
China are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high
waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 4 to 5
feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing
the Southwesterly Windflow bringing moderate to sometimes heavy
rains in some sections of the Philippines. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river
banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 24.1º N...LONGITUDE 117.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 105 KM (56 NM) NE OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 2:  85 KM (45 NM) ESE OF XIAMEN, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 385 KM (208 NM) ENE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 1
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: FUJIAN PROVINCE
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 870 KM (470 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM THU MAY 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 24 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
           
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 26.3N 118.7E / 85-100 KPH [EXTRATROPICAL]
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 29.2N 120.8E / 55-75 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY POSITION: 23.4N 117.0E.
^ ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE
THAT TY CHANCHU HAS BEGUN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. TY CHANCHU CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING
RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF TAIWAN. TY CHANCHU IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
IN THE STEERING RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...(more info)

>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth, 
   rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain 
   oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs 
   are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
 
EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

Southern Fujian: Ongoing until 9AM Thu.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where
the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times
on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT
changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life/death decisions.
_________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the 
      highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more 
      explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on 
   this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
            Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
            Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



Posted by MJ Klein at 08:24 0 comments

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

CHANCHU (CALOY) to make landfall early Thursday...[Update #18]

Yahoo! Groups My Groups | typhoon2000asiapac_stormlist Main Page


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #18
Name: TYPHOON CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 17 MAY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 18 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #035
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON CHANCHU (CALOY) EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA...NORTHERN EYEWALL
NOW ENTERING THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN GUANGDONG...HOWLING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS BEING FELT ALONG THE AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core (eye + eyewall) The Core (eye +
eyewall) of CHANCHU is expected to make landfall along Eastern
Guangdong-Fujian border early tomorrow morning, around 2 to 3 AM
- passing very close to Shantou-Chaoan, China. It shall then
accelerate NE later across the province of Fujian as a weakened
Tropical Storm. Residents of Southern China (especially Hong Kong,
Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces) are advised to take pre-
cautionary measures as the Category 2 typhoon passes by...mapping
out disaster preparedness plans during CHANCHU's approach must be
completed now to avoid loss of lives and properties.

+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core is just less than a hundred kilometers
away from the Coast of Eastern Guangdong, with most of its
strongest winds and heaviest rainfall situated along the core's
SE and southern quadrant. Its inner and outer rainbands continues
to affect Southern China particularly Hong Kong, Eastern Guangdong
and Western Fujian. Worsening weather conditions along Southern
China is expected today until early tomorrow as the typhoon makes
its final approach. These rainbands particularly the inner bands
will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with moderate
to strong, damaging winds and could produce flying debris, life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes over the affected areas. Resi-
dents residing along the coastal beachfront areas of Southern
China are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high
waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 6 to 8
feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains along
the some sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.8º N...LONGITUDE 116.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 215 KM (115 NM) ESE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) SSW OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 430 KM (232 NM) WSW OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 949 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 2
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,000 KM (540 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM WED MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 23.3N 116.8E / 150-185 KPH [LANDFALL]
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 25.7N 118.1E / 120-150 KPH [OVER FUJIAN]

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 21.3N 116.0E.
^ RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EROSION
OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN STORM QUADRANTS. TY CHANCHU
CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED
EAST OF TAIWAN. HOWEVER, THE MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OF TY CHANCHU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE A CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 12 HOURS AND COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION 36 HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WILL
EXIT CHINA JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AT 48 HOURS...(more info)

>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

Eastern Guangdong-Fujian Area: 5PM Fri-6AM Thu.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where
the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times
on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT
changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life/death decisions.
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:

http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
 Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



Posted by MJ Klein at 19:10 0 comments

Typhoon CHANCHU (CALOY) approaching Eastern Guangdong...[Update #17]

Yahoo! Groups My Groups | typhoon2000asiapac_stormlist Main Page


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #17
Name: TYPHOON CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 17 MAY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 17 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #033
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON CHANCHU (CALOY) MAINTAINED ITS CATEGORY THREE STATUS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA...INNER BANDS MOVING INTO
THE HONG KONG-EASTERN GUANGDONG AREA...STRONG WINDS AND RAINS
EXPECTED.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core (eye + eyewall) CHANCHU is expected to
continue make landfall along Eastern Guangdong around midnight Thurs-
day (May 18), passing very close to Shantou-Chaoan, China around
2 AM tomorrow. It shall then accelerate NE later across the pro-
vince of Fujian as a weakened Tropical Storm. Its closest approach
to the East of Hong Kong shall be at a distance of about 200 km.
around 6 PM today. Hong Kong residents are advised to take precau-
tionary measures and continue monitoring the progress of this
Category 3 typhoon...mapping out disaster preparedness plans
during CHANCHU's approach is necessary to avoid loss of lives
and properties.

+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core is just a hundred of kilometers to the
south of Guangdong, with most of its strongest winds and heaviest
rainfall situated along the core's SE and southern quadrant. Its
inner and outer rainbands is now affecting Southern China particu-
larly Hong Kong, Eastern Guangdong and Western Fujian and continues
to cover the entire northern half of the South China Sea. Deterio-
rating weather conditions along Southern China is expected today
until early tomorrow as the typhoon makes its final approach. These
rainbands particularly the inner bands will continue to bring mode-
rate to heavy rainfall with moderate to strong, damaging winds and
could produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes over
the affected areas. Residents residing along the coastal beachfront
areas of Southern China are advised to seek higher grounds due to
possible high waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from
9 to 12 feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains along
the some sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Low Pressure Area (aka. Tropical
Disturbance) over the Caroline Islands or near Palau and Yap
Island has dissipated and is no longer has the potential of
organizing.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.9º N...LONGITUDE 115.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 300 KM (160 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 410 KM (222 NM) SSW OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 570 KM (308 NM) WNW OF LAOAG CITY, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 938 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 3
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,000 KM (540 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM WED MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY: 21.3N 115.9E / 185-230 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 23.3N 116.5E / 150-185 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 19.5N 115.4E.
^ LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL, COMPACT EYE
SURROUNDED BY A WEAKENING OUTER EYEWALL. RECENT SATE-
LLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY CHANCHU HAS BEGUN TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST
OF TAIWAN. THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OF TY CHANCHU IS LIMITING THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WEST OF GUAM IS FURTHER
MODIFYING THIS STEERING RIDGE, FLATTENING IT FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. TY
CHANCHU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD CHINA, AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
HONG KONG AFTER 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS INLAND,
AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU
48...(more info)

>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

Shantou-Chaoan, China Area {along Guangdong-Fujian Border}:
9PM Wed-5AM Thu.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where
the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times
on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT
changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life/death decisions.
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:

http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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Posted by MJ Klein at 08:36 0 comments

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