Saturday, December 24, 2016

Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 007






Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Saturday 24 December 2016
Next update: Saturday Evening,  24 December 2016
Current Status and OutlookTyphoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) continues to intensify as it slightly slowed down and changes its course to the west in the general direction of Bicol Region. Chances are high that it will affect and bring Stormy Weather across the northern portion of Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Quezon beginning Christmas Day through Monday (Dec 26).

This typhoon is expected to move in a generally westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 14 km/hr, and will continue to gain strength before making landfall.

Important Note: Nock-ten (Nina) is comparable in track and strength of Typhoon Jean which crossed the Bicol Region on December 25, 1947.

Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 24…0300 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.2N 128.5E), about 515 km east of Legazpi City, Albay or 377 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 190 kph near the center…Gustiness: 235 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest to West @ 15 kphtowards the midwestern part of Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Bicol Region (most likely along the provinces of Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Sur or Camarines Norte) on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 60-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon  beginning Sunday Late Morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday (Dec 26).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Bicol Region and Northern Samar – beginning late-Saturday evening through Christmas Day (Dec 25).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**SUNDAY MORNING: Rapidly intensifies into a near Super Typhoon status as it continues to move west closer to the eastern coast of Catanduanes…about 172 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM DEC 25: 13.6N 125.8E @ 215kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens after making landfall and traversing the central part of Bicol Region…about 36 km east-northeast of Boac, Marinduque [8AM DEC 26: 13.5N 122.0E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it emerges over the northern part of the South China Sea after resuming its west-northwest track…about 380 km west of Metro Manila [8AM DEC 27: 14.8N 117.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 620 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Dec 24, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.2º N Lat 128.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 427 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 467 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 487 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 576 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 823 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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