Saturday, December 24, 2016

Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 008




Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Saturday 24 December 2016
Next update: Sunday Early Morning,  25 December 2016
Current Status and OutlookNOCK-TEN (NINA) has rapidly intensified into a Super Typhoon as it maintained its west to west-northwest track towards the Bicol Region.  Chances remains high that it will affect and bring Stormy Weather across Northern Samar, Bicol Region and Southern Quezon beginning Christmas Day through Monday morning (Dec 26).

This super typhoon is expected to move in a generally westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 13 km/hr, and will slightly weaken before making landfall.

Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 24…0900 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.4N 127.7E), about 380 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 433 km east of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 275 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest to West @ 15 kphtowards western part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over  Catanduanes on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th between 6-8pm, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%; and over Eastern Camarines Sur-Eastern Albay Area between 10pm Dec 25th to 12 midnight Dec 26 (Monday), with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon  beginning Sunday Noon, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday Morning (Dec 26).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – beginning Sunday morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday morning (Dec 26).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded from Super Typhoon status as it continues to move west, approaching the eastern coast of Catanduanes…about 109 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM DEC 25: 13.6N 125.2E @ 215kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over Cape Verde Passage. Weakens further into a minimal Typhoon after making landfall and traversing the central part of Bicol Region…about 45 km west-southwest of Batangas City, Batangas [2PM DEC 26: 13.7N 120.7E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Just a strong Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, and shall move to the west-southwest…about 377 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [2PM DEC 27: 14.6N 116.8E @ 105kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 450 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Dec 24, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.4º N Lat 127.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 340 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 392 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 455 km E of Iriga City, Cam Sur
Distance 4: 487 km ESE of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 735 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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