Saturday, December 24, 2016






Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 24 December 2016
Next update: Saturday Afternoon,  24 December 2016
Current Status and OutlookTyphoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has strengthened further as it continues moving west-northwest over the Central Philippine Sea. It is likely to affect and bring Stormy Weather across the northern portion of Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Quezon beginning Christmas Day through Monday (Dec 26).

This typhoon is expected to continue to move west-northwest within the next 24 hours with decreasing speed of 13 km/hr, and will continue to intensify. 

Important Note: Nock-ten (Nina) is comparable in track and strength of Typhoon Jean which crossed the Bicol Region on December 25, 1947.

Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 24…2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.1N 129.3E), about 602 km east of Legazpi City, Albay or 451 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 19 kphtowards the middle part of Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Bicol Region (most likely along the provinces of Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Sur or Camarines Norte) on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 60-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon  beginning Sunday, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday (Dec 26).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Bicol Region and Northern Samar – beginning late-Saturday evening through Christmas Day (Dec 25).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon as it starts to move west closer to Bicol Region…about 291 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM DEC 25: 13.6N 126.9E @ 205kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol Region while crossing the area…about 44 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur [2AM DEC 26: 13.6N 123.6E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further as it emerges over the northern part of the South China Sea after resuming its west-northwest track…about 239 km west of Metro Manila [2AM DEC 27: 14.7N 118.8E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 530 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Dec 24, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.1º N Lat 129.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 511 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 554 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 573 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 664 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 910 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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