Sunday, December 25, 2016

Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 012


Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 012



Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Sunday 25 December 2016
Next update: Monday Early Morning,  26 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook

Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has made landfall over the southern shores of Catanduanes, passing over the Town of  Virac.  Wind gusts of 207 km/hr was recorded over the WeatherPhilippines' Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Virac (LCP).  It will therefore traverse Eastern Camarines Sur for its second landfall between 9-11 pm tonight, and pass over or very close to Naga City between 11 pm to 1 am.

This super typhoon is expected to start accelerating while moving in a westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 22 km/hr. It shall consequently weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol Region and Southern Tagalog Provinces.

*Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-ten (Nina) is forecast to make its second landfall over the province of Camarines Sur before midnight tonight.

Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?As of 7:00 PM PhT today, December 25…1100 GMT.  The eye was located over Southern Catanduanes (near 13.6N 124.2E), about 87 km east-southeast of Goa, Camarines Sur or 108 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 235 kph near the center…Gustiness: 285 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West @ 16 kphtowards Camarines Sur.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Eastern Camarines Sur between 9-11pm Dec 25, with a high Strike Probability of 90-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – through Monday morning (Dec 26).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon as exits the West Philippine Sea after traversing the southern parts of CaLaBaRZon…about 15 km northeast of Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro [2PM DEC 26: 13.9N 120.3E @ 155kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS) due to entrainment of cold and drier air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) while over the West Philippine Sea. Starts to bend to the southwest…about 386 km west of Iba, Zambales [2PM DEC 27: 15.3N 116.4E @ 105kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Barely a Tropical Storm (TS) and is already over the South China Sea…about 227 km west and out of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility…ab out 843 km west-southwest of Iba, Zambales [2PM DEC 28: 13.5N 112.4E @ 70kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 480 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 7:00 PM PhT Sun Dec 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.6º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km NNE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 2: 70 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 3: 79 km ENE of Iriga City, Cam Sur
Distance 4: 150 km ESE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 5: 349 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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