Sunday, December 25, 2016

Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 009


Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 009



Issued at: 1:15 PM PhT (17:15 GMT) Sunday 25 December 2016
Next update: Sunday Morning,  25 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook

Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has slowed down further while maintaining its strength over the Central Philippine Sea.  Deteriorating weather conditions later today will be experienced across Bicol Region and Northern Samar as the system moves closer to land

This super typhoon is expected to continue moving in a generally westerly track within the next 12 to 24 hours at a speed of 14 km/hr, and will weaken before and after making landfall.

*Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-Ten (Nina) is forecast to make its first landfall over the island province of Catanduanes tonight.

Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 24…1500 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.5N 127.0E), about 303 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 359 km east of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 275 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West @ 13 kphtowards Catanduanes and Camarines Sur.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over  Catanduanes on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th between 7-8pm, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%; and over Eastern Camarines Sur or Eastern Albay Area between 10pm Dec 25th to 12 midnight Dec 26 (Monday), with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon  beginning Sunday Noon, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday Morning (Dec 26).

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – beginningSunday morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday morning (Dec 26).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EVENING: Downgraded from Super Typhoon (Category 4) to a Category 3 Typhoon as it traverses Catanduanes towards Eastern Camarines Sur…about 11 km east-northeast of San Andres, Catanduanes [8PM DEC 25: 13.7N 124.2E @ 190kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing the southern coastlines of Quezon and Batangas…just a Tropical Storm (TS, about 185 km west-southwest of Metro Manila [8PM DEC 26: 13.9N 119.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING:  Just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 475 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [8PM DEC 27: 14.4N 115.9E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Dec 24, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.5º N Lat 127.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 283 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 329 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 389 km E of Iriga City, Cam Sur
Distance 4: 411 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 659 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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