Friday, December 23, 2016








Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 23 December 2016
Next update: Friday Afternoon,  23 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (NINA) has entered the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early this morning and continues to intensify. It is likely to affect Eastern Visayas especially the northern portions and Bicol Region on Christmas Day.

This storm is expected to continue moving west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 26 km/hr, and could become a Typhoon. 

Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 23…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.2N 134.5E), about 990 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 1,190 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 9kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 28 kphtowards the Southeastern part of Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Bicol Region (most likely along the provinces of Catanduanes,  Camarines Sur or Camarines Norte) on Christmas Day, Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 70-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon  beginning Sunday Morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday (Dec 26).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as a Typhoon while moving west-northwest across the southeastern part of Central Philippine Sea…about 482 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM DEC 24: 12.8N 129.7E @ 140kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a strong Typhoon as it slows down slightly while moving across the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea, about 206 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM DEC 25: 13.8N 126.1E @ 180kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it moves west across Northern Bicol through Southern Quezon…about 33 km west-southwest of Calauag, Quezon [2AM DEC 26: 13.9N 122.1E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Dec 23, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.2º N Lat 134.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 1082 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 937 km ENE of Siargao Island Resort
Distance 3: 1041 km E of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 4: 1258 km ESE of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 1514 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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