Friday, December 23, 2016

Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 001


Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 001




Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Thursday 22 December 2016
Next update: Friday Morning,  23 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 30W has intensified rapidly into a strong Tropical Storm known internationally as "Nock-Ten" – a Laotian word for bird.  It will enter the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early Friday morning and is likely to affect Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region on Christmas Day.

This storm is expected to move west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 28 km/hr, and could become a Typhoon. 

Where is "NOCK-TEN"?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 22…0900 GMT.  The center was located in thevicinity of Western Micronesia (near 9.7N 137.2E), about 100 km west-northwest ofColonia, Yap or 1,306 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph
Where is it heading?It was moving West-Northwest @ 26 kphtowards the Southeastern part of Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s)Over Bicol Region (most likely along the provinces of Albay, Catanduanes or Camarines Sur) on Christmas Day, Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 70-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region  beginning Saturday Evening, Christmas Eve (Dec 24) through Sunday, Christmas Day (Dec 25).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies at near-Typhoon strength while moving west-northwest across the southeastern and southern parts of Central Philippine Sea…about 697 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM DEC 23: 11.7N 131.8E @ 110kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a strong Typhoon as it slows down slight while moving across the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea, about 353 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM DEC 24: 13.0N 127.4E @ 170kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it makes landfall in the vicinity of Mt. Iriga in Camarines Sur…about 24 km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur [2PM DEC 25: 13.5N 123.4E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Dec 22, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.7º N Lat 137.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 241 km E of PAR
Distance 2: 1216 km E of Siargao Island Resort
Distance 3: 1344 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 4: 1584 km ESE of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 1,832 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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