Bushman's Typhoon Blog: December 2016

Sunday, December 25, 2016

Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 012

SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 012 Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Sunday 25 December 2016 Next update: Monday Early Morning, 26 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook	Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has made landfall over the southern shores of Catanduanes, passing over the Town of Virac. Wind gusts of 207 km/hr was recorded over the WeatherPhilippines' Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Virac (LCP). It will therefore traverse Eastern Camarines Sur for its second landfall between 9-11 pm tonight, and pass over or very close to Naga City between 11 pm to 1 am. This super typhoon is expected to start accelerating while moving in a westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 22 km/hr. It shall consequently weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol Region and Southern Tagalog Provinces. *Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-ten (Nina) is forecast to make its second landfall over the province of Camarines Sur before midnight tonight.
Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?	As of 7:00 PM PhT today, December 25…1100 GMT. The eye was located over Southern Catanduanes (near 13.6N 124.2E), about 87 km east-southeast of Goa, Camarines Sur or 108 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 235 kph near the center…Gustiness: 285 kph
Where is it heading?	It was moving West @ 16 kph, towards Camarines Sur.
Potential Landfall Area(s)	Over Eastern Camarines Sur between 9-11pm Dec 25, with a high Strike Probability of 90-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*	:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – through Monday morning (Dec 26). +Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon as exits the West Philippine Sea after traversing the southern parts of CaLaBaRZon…about 15 km northeast of Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro [2PM DEC 26: 13.9N 120.3E @ 155kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS) due to entrainment of cold and drier air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) while over the West Philippine Sea. Starts to bend to the southwest…about 386 km west of Iba, Zambales [2PM DEC 27: 15.3N 116.4E @ 105kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Barely a Tropical Storm (TS) and is already over the South China Sea…about 227 km west and out of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility…ab out 843 km west-southwest of Iba, Zambales [2PM DEC 28: 13.5N 112.4E @ 70kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 480 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 7:00 PM PhT Sun Dec 25, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.6º N Lat 124.2º E Lon Distance 1: 70 km NNE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 2: 70 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 3: 79 km ENE of Iriga City, Cam Sur Distance 4: 150 km ESE of Daet, Cam Norte Distance 5: 349 km ESE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 011

SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 011 Issued at: 1:15 PM PhT (05:15 GMT) Sunday 25 December 2016 Next update: Sunday Evening, 25 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook	Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has gained more strength during the past 6 hours as it continues to move slowly closer Bicol Region endangering the area. Its outer rain bands are now affecting Northern Samar and most of Bicol Region. This super typhoon is expected to start accelerating while moving in a westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 21 km/hr. It shall consequently weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol Region and Southern Tagalog Provinces. *Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-ten (Nina) is forecast to make its first landfall over the island province of Catanduanes tonight.
Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 25…0300 GMT. The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 125.5E), about 140 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 197 km east-northeast of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 235 kph near the center…Gustiness: 285 kph
Where is it heading?	It was moving West @ 14 kph, towards Catanduanes and Camarines Sur.
Potential Landfall Area(s)	Over Catanduanes this evening, Dec 25 between 5-7pm, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%; and over Eastern Camarines Sur or Eastern Albay Area between 9-11pm Dec 25, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*	:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – through Monday morning (Dec 26). +Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	MONDAY MORNING: Weakened into a Category 2 Typhoon as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol, Southern Quezon, Mindoro and CaLaBaRZon…about 29 km east-northeast of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro [8AM DEC 26: 13.5N 121.4E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS) due to entrainment of cold and drier air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) while over the West Philippine Sea. Starts to bend to the southwest…about 325 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [8AM DEC 27: 14.7N 117.3E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Barely a Tropical Storm (TS) and is already over the South China Sea…about 227 km west and out of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility [8AM DEC 28: 13.5N 112.9E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 475 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Dec 25, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.6º N Lat 125.5º E Lon Distance 1: 160 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar Distance 2: 174 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 3: 226 km E of Iriga City, Cam Sur Distance 4: 249 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur Distance 5: 496 km ESE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 010

SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 010 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 25 December 2016 Next update: Sunday Afternoon, 25 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook	Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has maintained its strength as it continues to move slowly closer to the eastern coasts of Bicol Region. Deteriorating weather conditions are expected today across Northern Samar and Bicol Region. This super typhoon is expected to continue moving in a generally westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr, and shall consequently weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol Region and the entrainment of cold and dry air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). *Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-ten (Nina) is forecast to make its first landfall over the island province of Catanduanes tonight.
Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 25…2100 GMT. The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 126.3E), about 226 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 282 km east of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 275 kph
Where is it heading?	It was moving West @ 13 kph, towards Catanduanes and Camarines Sur.
Potential Landfall Area(s)	Over Catanduanes on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th between 5-7pm, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%; and over Eastern Camarines Sur or Eastern Albay Area between 9-11pm Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*	:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon – beginning Sunday Noon, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday Morning (Dec 26). *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – beginningSunday morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday morning (Dec 26). +Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded from Super Typhoon (Category 4) to a Category 3 Typhoon as it traverses the central part of Bicol…about 21 km west of Naga City, Camarines Sur [2AM DEC 26: 13.6N 123.0E @ 170kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Southern Tagalog Provinces…just a Tropical Storm (TS), about 284 km west of Metro Manila [2AM DEC 27: 14.9N 118.4E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and begins to bend southwestward…about 541 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [2AM DEC 28: 14.6N 115.3E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Dec 25, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.6º N Lat 126.3º E Lon Distance 1: 222 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar Distance 2: 256 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 3: 313 km E of Iriga City, Cam Sur Distance 4: 336 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur Distance 5: 581 km ESE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 009

SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 009 Issued at: 1:15 PM PhT (17:15 GMT) Sunday 25 December 2016 Next update: Sunday Morning, 25 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook	Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has slowed down further while maintaining its strength over the Central Philippine Sea. Deteriorating weather conditions later today will be experienced across Bicol Region and Northern Samar as the system moves closer to land. This super typhoon is expected to continue moving in a generally westerly track within the next 12 to 24 hours at a speed of 14 km/hr, and will weaken before and after making landfall. *Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-Ten (Nina) is forecast to make its first landfall over the island province of Catanduanes tonight.
Where is "NOCK-TEN" (NINA)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 24…1500 GMT. The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.5N 127.0E), about 303 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 359 km east of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 275 kph
Where is it heading?	It was moving West @ 13 kph, towards Catanduanes and Camarines Sur.
Potential Landfall Area(s)	Over Catanduanes on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th between 7-8pm, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%; and over Eastern Camarines Sur or Eastern Albay Area between 10pm Dec 25th to 12 midnight Dec 26 (Monday), with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*	:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon – beginning Sunday Noon, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday Morning (Dec 26). *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – beginningSunday morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday morning (Dec 26). +Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	SUNDAY EVENING: Downgraded from Super Typhoon (Category 4) to a Category 3 Typhoon as it traverses Catanduanes towards Eastern Camarines Sur…about 11 km east-northeast of San Andres, Catanduanes [8PM DEC 25: 13.7N 124.2E @ 190kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. MONDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing the southern coastlines of Quezon and Batangas…just a Tropical Storm (TS, about 185 km west-southwest of Metro Manila [8PM DEC 26: 13.9N 119.5E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. TUESDAY EVENING: Just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 475 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [8PM DEC 27: 14.4N 115.9E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore,a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Dec 24, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.5º N Lat 127.0º E Lon Distance 1: 283 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar Distance 2: 329 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 3: 389 km E of Iriga City, Cam Sur Distance 4: 411 km E of Naga City, Cam Sur Distance 5: 659 km ESE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.