for Saturday, 12 October 2013 [1:45 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Saturday 12 October 2013
Typhoon NARI (SANTI) has moved quickly westward and made landfall over Aurora Province, near the town of Dingalan...now traversing Nueva Ecija on its way to Tarlac and Zambales. Strong winds and heavy rains continues to be felt across Central Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 pm today, the eye of TY Nari (Santi) was located over the eastern part of Nueva Ecija...about 30 km east of Cabanatuan City or 75 km east of Tarlac City, Tarlac...currently moving west with an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr towards Nueva Ecija-Tarlac-Zambales Provinces.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 195 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Nari (Santi) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (320 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Nari (Santi) is expected to continue moving westerly with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours...slowing down through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will be traversing Nueva Ecija around midnight...and move across Tarlac and Pangasinan early Saturday morning. Nari (Santi) will then be emerging over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Zambales by Saturday morning. By Saturday evening through Sunday, the typhoon will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) - passing along the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea.
TY Nari (Santi) is expected to weaken temporarily during the next 12 hours as it interacts with the mountain range of Sierra Madre and Zambales...and will reintensify once it reaches the West Philippine Sea during the next 24 to 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 150 km/hr as it emerges across the West Philippine Sea.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Weakens while emerging into the West Philippine Sea and exiting the PAR...about 440 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [11PM OCT 12: 15.4N 115.9E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Moving closer to Central Vietnam...reintensifies...about 410 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [11PM OCT 13: 15.6N 112.0E @ 165kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Just along the coast of Central Vietnam...about 110 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [11PM OCT 14: 15.8N 109.2E @ 165kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over Nueva Ecija very near Cabanatuan City. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Southern Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and Eastern Pangasinan (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Pangasinan, Rest of Aurora, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Metro Manila, La Union, and Benguet. OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Part of the West Philippine Sea and the rest of Luzon including Mindoro. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 320 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, south and near the center of Nari (Santi). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Sections of Central Luzon this morning. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Nari (Santi)
Location of Eye: Near 15.5º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km E of Cabanatuan City
Distance 2: 45 km SW of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 75 km E of Tarlac City
Distance 4: 80 km ENE of Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 5: 100 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 120 km SE of Dagupan City
Distance 7: 135 km SSE of Baguio City
Distance 8: 140 km ENE of Iba, Zambales
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: West @ 33 kph
Towards: Nueva Ecija-Tarlac-Zambales
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [320 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 610 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NARI (SANTI)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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