for Tuesday, 29 October 2013 [9:38 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Tuesday 29 October 2013
Next Update: 11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tuesday 29 October 2013
The fast-moving Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W west of the Marianas has strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD) locally named VINTA...now threatens Luzon particularly the Northern and Central part. Initial forecast shows a possible landfall sometime Thursday afternoon or evening (Halloween Night) over Aurora-Isabela Area.
This depression will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing sunny to cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds along the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas today.
Residents and visitors along Luzon and Northern Visayas should closely monitor the development of this depression (Vinta).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 am today, the center of the TD (Vinta) was located over the easternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 1,190 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 1,415 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr towards Luzon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
The TD (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the TD (Vinta) will move across the Central Philippine Sea by early Wednesday morning...and will be approaching the eastern coast of Isabela by early Thursday morning.
The TD (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 48 hours...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 110 km/hr on Thursday morning.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a TS as it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 910 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM OCT 30: 16.0N 130.6E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it approaches the eastern coast of Isabela and Northern Aurora...about 290 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2AM OCT 31: 16.8N 125.1E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Traversing Northern Luzon...over Ilocos Provinces...about 30 km northeast of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM NOV 01: 17.8N 120.6E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 29, 2013
Class/Name: TD (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 14.6º N Lat 135.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 20 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1190 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 1415 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1515 km E of Metro Manila
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD (VINTA)...go visit our website @:
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