for Friday, 11 October 2013 [10:55 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Friday 11 October 2013
Typhoon NARI (SANTI) has maintained its strength as it continues to move west closer to Aurora Province...endangers further Central and Northern Luzon. Its western outer rainbands are spreading across the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Region while its western inner rainbands are now affecting the eastern part of Central Luzon ...likely to make landfall over Aurora late this evening.
Residents and visitors along Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Nari (Santi) was located over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 155 km north-northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte or 125 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west with a forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Aurora and Nueva Ecija Provinces.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Nari (Santi) has reduced into an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Nari (Santi) is expected to continue moving west with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours...slowing down through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will be making landfall over Aurora somewhere south and very close to the town of Baler late tonight. Nari (Santi) will then traverse the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan and Zambales after midnight through Saturday early morning before moving out into the West Philippine Sea. Throughout Saturday, the typhoon will be cruising along the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea, exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Saturday night.
TY Nari (Santi) is expected to weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours as it interacts with the mountain range of Sierra Madre. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 165 km/hr after making landfall over Aurora Province tonight and decrease further to 150 km/hr by tomorrow afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 1 TY while emerging into the West Philippine Sea...about 250 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [5PM OCT 12: 15.6N 117.7E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Cruising over the West Philippine Sea after exiting PAR...regains Category 2 strength...about 740 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [5PM OCT 13: 15.8N 113.1E @ 165kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turns slightly to the west-northwest...intensifies more as it approaches the coast of Central Vietnam...about 215 km east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [5PM OCT 14: 16.4N 110.2E @ 175kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Western Part of Central Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Western Part of Central Philippine Sea.. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Partido District in Camarines Sur and Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Eastern section of Central Luzon, Southeastern section of Northern Luzon and the Western Part of Central Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western Part of Central Philippine Sea and the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila, Rest of Bicol Region, Mindoro, Masbate, and Panay. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, south and near the center of Nari (Santi).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Section of Central Luzon tonight. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Northern Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Nari (Santi)
Location of Eye: Near 15.5º N Lat 123.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 200 km NW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 250 km NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 155 km NNE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 210 km NNW of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 125 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 125 km NE of Polillo Island
Distance 7: 165 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 240 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph
Towards: Aurora & Nueva Ecija Provinces
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Tonight [between 10PM-12MN PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 610 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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