for Wednesday, 06 April 2011 [8:07 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday April 04 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 02W (AMANG).
02W (AMANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [AMANG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 06 April 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 02W (AMANG) has moved past the Northernmost Mariana Islands...now accelerating East to ENE-ward into the open seas of the NW Pacific.
Mariners along the NW Pacific Ocean should closely monitor the progress of 02W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Apr 06 2011
Location of Center: 17.1º N Lat 146.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) NNE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) NNE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1170 km (632 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2495 km (1347 nm) ENE of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: N/A
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Wed Apr 06
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
02W (AMANG) will continue moving Eastward for the next 24 hours across the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and dissipate. By early tomorrow morning (Apr 07), 02W will just be an area of low pressure [2PM APR 06: 17.8N 148.7E @ 45kph...2AM APR 07: 18.2N 151.9E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 02W (AMANG) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
02W's circulation remains over water (NW Pacific Ocean) and its sheared rainbands has moved away from the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
SHEARED RAINBANDS - remains over water, and no longer affecting Northernmost Marianas. Light to moderate winds (<55 kph) w/ occasional rains can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 90 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) to the northeast of 02W's center [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The weak Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA/1008 MB) remains almost stationary near the NW Coast of Sabah, Malaysia. This system is part of the remnants of 01W. The ill-defined center was located near lat 6.2N lon 113.0E...about 560 km SSW of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 245 km NW of Brunei...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. Its rainbands continues to affect the NW coast of Sabah including Brunei. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system has decreased to 40%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation.
External Links for TD 02W (AMANG)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0211.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 06 APRIL POSITION: 17.0N 145.0E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST.
A 05/1626Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
LLCC DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. A 05/1113Z ASCAT PASS ALSO
SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DECREASED OUTFLOW AND INCREASED INTERACTION WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW RANGING FROM 25-35 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF 25-30 KNOTS OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NOW FAVORS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
LLCC BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM'S JTWC TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 02W (AMANG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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