for Tuesday, 05 April 2011 [6:10 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday April 04 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 02W (AMANG).
02W (AMANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [AMANG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 05 April 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 02W (AMANG) becoming better organized as it approaches the Northernmost Mariana Islands. Rainbands now spreading across Agrihan and nearby islands.
Residents and visitors along the Northernmost Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 02W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Apr 05 2011
Location of Center: 16.0º N Lat 142.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km (187 nm) WNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 375 km (203 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 810 km (438 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1955 km (1055 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 40 kph (22 kts)
Towards: Agrihan Island Area
ETA over Agrihan Area: 7AM CHST Tomorrow
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: N/A
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Tue Apr 05
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
02W (AMANG) will continue accelerating ENE-ward for the next 24 hours across the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and intensify...reaching Tropical Storm strength tonight. By tomorrow afternoon (Apr 06), 02W will become Extratropical while passing the northernmost Mariana Islands [2AM APR 06: 17.6N 144.8E @ 65kph...2PM APR 06: 18.5N 148.5E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 02W (AMANG) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
02W's circulation remains over water (NW Pacific Ocean) and its rainbands has started affecting the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
OUTER / INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water, but will start to affect Agrihan & nearby islands of the Northernmost Marianas tonight until early tomorrow morning. Light to moderate winds (<55 kph) w/ occasional rains can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) northeast of 02W [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The new Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA/1008 MB) remains almost stationary near the NW Coast of Sabah, Malaysia. This system is part of the remnants of 01W. The ill-defined center was located near lat 7.8N lon 114.6E...about 370 km South of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 500 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. Its outer rainbands continues to affect the NW coast of Sabah. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 50%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation.
External Links for TD 02W (AMANG)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0211.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 05 APRIL POSITION: 16.1N 141.1E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. A 050353Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 02W IS
LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MO-
DERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (APPROXIMATELY 25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. TD 02W IS QUICKLY TRACKING
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
TD 02W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24. HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHEARED AND DISSIPATES
BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, EXCEPT FOR GFDN, WHICH TRACKS TD 02W EASTWARD
AND SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES ETT AND THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS,
GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM'S JTWC TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 02W (AMANG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment