Bushman's Typhoon Blog: April 2011

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

TD 02W [AMANG] - Final Update

for Wednesday, 06 April 2011 [1:13 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday April 06 2011):

Ending the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 02W (AMANG) as it dissipates over water.

02W (AMANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [AMANG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009 **FINAL**
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 06 April 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Depression 02W (AMANG) has weakened as it moves farther away from the Northernmost Mariana Islands...will dissipate into a disturbance (LPA) later tonight.

*This is the Final Advisory on Western Pacific's 2nd Tropical Cyclone of 2011.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed Apr 06 2011
Location of Center: 16.7º N Lat 147.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 255 km (137 nm) NE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 470 km (253 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1330 km (718 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2680 km (1447 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: N/A
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Wed Apr 06

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

02W (AMANG) will continue moving ENE to NE-ward across the NW Pacific and dissipate over water within the next 12 to 24 hours. Later tonight through tomorrow morning (Apr 07), 02W will just be an area of low pressure [8PM APR 06: 18.6N 150.4E @ 35kph...8AM APR 07: 19.4N 153.7E @ 35kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) has decreased to near 65 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 02W (AMANG) is a weak Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

02W's weakening circulation remains over water (NW Pacific Ocean) and its sheared rainbands has moved away from the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SHEARED RAINBANDS - remains over water, and no longer affecting Northernmost Marianas. Light to moderate winds (<55 kph) w/ occasional rains can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 160 mm (heavy) to the northeast of 02W's center [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA/1010 MB) continues to remain almost stationary near the NW Coast of Sabah, Malaysia. The ill-defined center was located near lat 6.2N lon 112.4E...about 585 km SSW of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 300 km WNW of Brunei...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. Its rainbands continues to affect the NW coast of Sabah including Brunei. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 40%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 02W (AMANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TD 02W [AMANG] - Update #008

for Wednesday, 06 April 2011 [8:07 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday April 04 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 02W (AMANG).

02W (AMANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [AMANG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 06 April 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Depression 02W (AMANG) has moved past the Northernmost Mariana Islands...now accelerating East to ENE-ward into the open seas of the NW Pacific.

Mariners along the NW Pacific Ocean should closely monitor the progress of 02W.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Apr 06 2011
Location of Center: 17.1º N Lat 146.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) NNE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) NNE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1170 km (632 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2495 km (1347 nm) ENE of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: N/A
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Wed Apr 06

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

02W (AMANG) will continue moving Eastward for the next 24 hours across the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and dissipate. By early tomorrow morning (Apr 07), 02W will just be an area of low pressure [2PM APR 06: 17.8N 148.7E @ 45kph...2AM APR 07: 18.2N 151.9E @ 35kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 02W (AMANG) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

02W's circulation remains over water (NW Pacific Ocean) and its sheared rainbands has moved away from the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SHEARED RAINBANDS - remains over water, and no longer affecting Northernmost Marianas. Light to moderate winds (<55 kph) w/ occasional rains can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 90 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) to the northeast of 02W's center [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

The weak Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA/1008 MB) remains almost stationary near the NW Coast of Sabah, Malaysia. This system is part of the remnants of 01W. The ill-defined center was located near lat 6.2N lon 113.0E...about 560 km SSW of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 245 km NW of Brunei...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. Its rainbands continues to affect the NW coast of Sabah including Brunei. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system has decreased to 40%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 02W (AMANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0211.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 06 APRIL POSITION: 17.0N 145.0E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST.
A 05/1626Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
LLCC DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. A 05/1113Z ASCAT PASS ALSO
SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DECREASED OUTFLOW AND INCREASED INTERACTION WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW RANGING FROM 25-35 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF 25-30 KNOTS OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NOW FAVORS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
LLCC BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM'S JTWC TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Tuesday, April 05, 2011

TD 02W [AMANG] - Update #007

for Tuesday, 05 April 2011 [6:10 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday April 04 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 02W (AMANG).

02W (AMANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [AMANG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 05 April 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Depression 02W (AMANG) becoming better organized as it approaches the Northernmost Mariana Islands. Rainbands now spreading across Agrihan and nearby islands.

Residents and visitors along the Northernmost Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 02W.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Apr 05 2011
Location of Center: 16.0º N Lat 142.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km (187 nm) WNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 375 km (203 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 810 km (438 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1955 km (1055 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 40 kph (22 kts)
Towards: Agrihan Island Area
ETA over Agrihan Area: 7AM CHST Tomorrow
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: N/A
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Tue Apr 05

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

02W (AMANG) will continue accelerating ENE-ward for the next 24 hours across the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and intensify...reaching Tropical Storm strength tonight. By tomorrow afternoon (Apr 06), 02W will become Extratropical while passing the northernmost Mariana Islands [2AM APR 06: 17.6N 144.8E @ 65kph...2PM APR 06: 18.5N 148.5E @ 75kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 02W (AMANG) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

02W's circulation remains over water (NW Pacific Ocean) and its rainbands has started affecting the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

OUTER / INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water, but will start to affect Agrihan & nearby islands of the Northernmost Marianas tonight until early tomorrow morning. Light to moderate winds (<55 kph) w/ occasional rains can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) northeast of 02W [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

The new Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA/1008 MB) remains almost stationary near the NW Coast of Sabah, Malaysia. This system is part of the remnants of 01W. The ill-defined center was located near lat 7.8N lon 114.6E...about 370 km South of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 500 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. Its outer rainbands continues to affect the NW coast of Sabah. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 50%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 02W (AMANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0211.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 05 APRIL POSITION: 16.1N 141.1E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. A 050353Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 02W IS
LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MO-
DERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (APPROXIMATELY 25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. TD 02W IS QUICKLY TRACKING
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
TD 02W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24. HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHEARED AND DISSIPATES
BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, EXCEPT FOR GFDN, WHICH TRACKS TD 02W EASTWARD
AND SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES ETT AND THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS,
GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM'S JTWC TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________