Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HALONG (COSME) approaching Western Luzon... [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TROPICAL STORM HALONG [COSME/05W/0804]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM HALONG (COSME) INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF ZAMBALES

AND NORTHERN PANGASINAN...WINDS NOW CLOCKED AT 95 KM/HR...STORM WARNING

SIGNAL NUMBER TWO (2) NOW HOISTED.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HALONG is expected to continue intensifying as it

moves closer to the Western Coast of Luzon. It shall make landfall over

Ilocos Sur-Ilocos Norte area around 2 AM tomorrow morning (Sunday),

reaching forecast peak intensity of 110 km/hr. The 2 to 5-day long range

forecast shows the storm crossing the NW tip of Northern Luzon passing

thru Balintang Channel & Calayan Island tomorrow morning. It shall then

pass close to the South of Batanes tomorrow afternoon. By early Monday

morning, HALONG shall reach Typhoon strength as it begins Extratropical

transition. The system shall be Extratropical before moving inland across

Honshu, Japan - just east of Tokyo on Tuesday morning, May 20th.

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's over-all circulation has slightly shrunked over the

South China Sea, near the Coast of Zambales. Its inner rain bands con-

tinues to spread across the coastal areas of Zambales & Northern Panga-

sinan - bringing moderate to heavy rains w/ strong winds not exceeding

85 km/hr today. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late

today along the Provinces of Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan & Benguet as

HALONG make its closest approach. Its outer rain bands, on the other

hand, continues to affect Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro.

These bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains &

strong winds not exceeding 60 km/hr today. People living in low-lying

areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the antici-

pated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be fully implemented at this time.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which

is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western Vi-

sayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces.

The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mode-

rate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides,

mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain

/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this

monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovemen-

tioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the

active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and

thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.6º N...LONGITUDE 118.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 155 KM (83 NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 215 KM (115 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH

DISTANCE 4: 285 KM (155 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH

DISTANCE 5: 295 KM (160 NM) SSW OF VIGAN, ILOCOS SUR, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 11 KPH (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ILOCOS PROVINCES
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR.
#01 - METRO MANILA, BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA
      VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, ABRA, QUIRINO, QUEZON,
      AURORA, ILOCOS NORTE, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CAVITE, BATANGAS,
      LAGUNA, RIZAL, & LUBANG IS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY: 16.6N 119.3E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 18.1N 120.6E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 21.9N 125.0E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 50 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 MAY: 29.7N 133.5E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 68 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.2N 118.3E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
THE EFFECTS OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUT-
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT CONSOLIDATION, HOWEVER PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 17 MAY: 15.4N 118.4E / NE @ 15 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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