Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W (NONAME)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [NONAME]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 15 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (NONAME) INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO

DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH...MAY RECURVE LATER TO THE NORTHEAST, AWAY FROM

NORTHERN LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 04W is expected to become a minimal Tropical Storm

this afternoon and recurve fast towards the northeast tonight. The 3-day

medium range forecast shows the system zooming further towards the ENE,

becoming Extratropical Saturday or Sunday.

+ EFFECTS: 04W's outer and inner rain bands continues to affect the

Eastern Coastline of Northern & Central Luzon, bringing moderate to

sometimes heavy rains along with winds not exceeding 55 km/hr today.

People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible

flooding due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system.

Precautionary measures must be fully implemented.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by 04W & TD COSME continues to affect

Western Visayas, Mindoro, Central & Southern Luzon including Metro

Manila and Bicol Region. The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy

skies with moderate to heavy rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds not

exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding

is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks,

low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big

sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal

and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the

rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough),

which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially

in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 15 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.2º N...LONGITUDE 123.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 195 KM (105 NM) NE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 250 KM (135 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME THU MAY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 MAY: 18.3N 123.5E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 16 MAY: 19.9N 124.5E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 31 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY: 23.9N 131.8E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 42 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 26.7N 141.5E / 55-75 KPH / E @ 42 KPH
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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