Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD COSME (95W) threatens Western Luzon... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME [95W]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 15 MAY 2008
Source: JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA) TC WARNING [15/0900 GMT]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME (95W) MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH-

NORTHEAST...NOW A THREAT TO WESTERN LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: COSME is expected to continue moving NNE within

the next 12 hours and turn more to the NE tomorrow afternoon. This

system is likely to become a Tropical Storm. Majority of the Global

Forecast Models continues to show the storm heading North to NNE,

then shifting towards the NE - passing across NW Luzon via La Union

& Ilocos Sur this weekend. Stay tuned for more updates on COSME's

forecast track.

+ EFFECTS: COSME's elongated rain bands remains well over the South

China Sea, with the eastern outer bands affecting the Western Coast

of Palawan, Mindoro & Lubang Is. These areas will experience mode-

rate to sometimes heavy rains along with winds not exceeding 55

km/hr tonight and tomorrow. People living in low-lying areas must

seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the anticipated

heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be fully implemented.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by COSME & 04W continues to affect Sou-

thern Luzon, Metro Manila, Palawan, Mindoro & Western Visayas in-

cluding Boracay Island Resort. The monsoon-affected areas will

have cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains, thunderstorms &

SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/vol-

cano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by

this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the

abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is

under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered

rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 15 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.4º N...LONGITUDE 117.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 330 KM (178 NM) SW OF SUBIC BAY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 335 KM (180 NM) SW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 355 KM (192 NM) WEST OF PUERTO GALERA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 385 KM (208 NM) WSW OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NNE SLOWLY
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME THU MAY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: N/A
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

24 HR. FORECAST:
5 PM (09 GMT) 16 MAY: 14.9N 118.7E / 75-110 KPH / NE SLOWLY
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 MAY: 13.7N 117.4E / N @ 07 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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