Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #04


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004 
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 01 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) INTENSIFIED WHILE DOING A SLIGHT JOG TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THREAT TO SOUTHWESTERN KYUSHU UP TO
SHIKOKU CONTINUES
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI will resume moving NW-ward for the
next 2 days in the direction of Southwestern Japan with fore-
cast sustained winds that may reach 220 km/hr (Cat 4). The
advance 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI making
landfall over Southern Kyushu early friday morning, Aug 3.
It shall then be off the Northern Coast of Northern Kyushu
late Friday afternoon Aug 3 - recurving NE'ly across the
Sea of Japan towards NE Japan (Sapporo area)


+ EFFECTS: USAGI's northeastern-edge outer bands now
affecting Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Intermittent rains
with moderate to strong winds can be expected along the
area. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous ba-
ttering waves can be expected near and to the north of
USAGI's projected path
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to forecast
a formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August
4 to 9. During the latest run of the model forecast (8 AM
Jul 31), it showed the first system forming over the South
China Sea around Aug 4 (Sat), becoming a Typhoon before
making landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Meanwhile,
the second system is likely to form sometime Aug 7 or 8 (Tue
or Wed) in the area off the Philippine Sea, just to the East
of Bicol Region - then heading northwesterly in the direc-
tion of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical Storm or a Typhoon.
The second one still shows a close proximity to Luzon which
might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring moderate to
heavy rainfall over the area. If this happens, it might be
a big relief to the dry areas of Luzon particularly over
Angat Dam and other reservoirs. This scenario is also su-
pported by the Global Tropics Benefits/Hazard Assessment
of NOAA. Watch out for continued updates on this advance
forecast
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 31 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 23.1º N...LONGITUDE 139.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 285 KM (185 NM) SW OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 1,190 KM (640 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 1,270 KM (685 NM) SE OF KAGOSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 1,830 KM (987 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHWESTERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG-LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 29 FEET (8.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TUE JULY 31
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 24.1N 138.0E / 205-250 KPH / NW @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 25.8N 136.0E / 215-260 KPH / NW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 29.8N 131.6E / 215-260 KPH / NNW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 31 JULY POSITION: 22.8N 139.6E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS INTENSIFIED TO 105 KTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 5.5/5.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND 6.0/6.0 FROM
RJTD. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER JAPAN HAS
ALLOWED A BRIEF NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND FORMATION OF A POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS HAVE ALLOWED RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR WITH MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN DEVELOPMENT..
.(more info)

>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
  
Name contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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our website @:

>
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