Monday, August 06, 2007

TS PABUK (CHEDENG) - Update #03


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM PABUK [CHEDENG/07W/0706] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 06 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 07 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM PABUK (CHEDENG) ACCELERATES FURTHER, INCREASING
ITS THREAT TO TAIWAN.

Meanwhile, another circulation to the South of PABUK is beco-
ming a separate Tropical Disturbance (LPA) and has remained al-
most stationary...located near 14.0N 130.0E, or about 615 km.
East of Catanduanes or 960 km. ESE of Metro Manila
. This dis-
turbance is located on the southern edge of an active Monsoon
Trough (aka. ITCZ) which extends Eastward from TD 06W (over
the Gulf of Tonkin, near Hainan Is.) up to the Southern Ma-
rianas-Chuuk Area. Latest analysis shows increasing conver-
gence over this circulation especially along the NW quadrant.
If continued development & separation occurs, we might see
another Tropical Cyclone within the week.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PABUK is expected to continue moving WNW
in the direction of Northern Taiwan, becoming a 140-km/hr
Typhoon tomorrow afternoon, Aug 7. The 1 to 4-day forecast
shows PABUK becoming a 165-km/hr Category 2 Typhoon before
making landfall over Northern Taiwan on Wednesday morning,
Aug 08 (approx 7 AM HK Time) and shall cross the mountainous
terrain of Taiwan, passing very close to the South of Taipei
by noon time, Aug 8 (Wed). This potential typhoon shall move
back to sea (over Taiwan Strait) as a weakened system and
make its last and final landfall over Eastern China, in the
vicinity of Fuzhou, China on Wednesday evening, Aug 08 or
early Thursday morning, Aug 9. It shall then continue tra-
cking NW'ly across Mainland China and dissipate by
Friday, Aug 10


+ EFFECTS: PABUK's circulation, located along the Northern
edge of the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ), has become more compact and
is likely to detached from the trough as it continues to conso-
lidate. As of the moment, only the various shipping lines is
affected by this storm.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon conti-
nues to be enhanced by PABUK and another Tropical Disturbance
(LPA) to the East of Bicol Region...Cloudy skies with possible
intermittent passing rains or thunderstorms with SW'ly winds
of 15 km/hr or higher can be expected along the western sec-
tions of Southern Luzon (including Bicol Region), Visayas &
Mindanao particularly the western sections. This monsoon
system may reach Northern & Central Luzon tomorrow or Wed-
nesday. Meanwhile, strong Thunderstorms has formed back and
is now spreading across portions of Luzon this afternoon
until early evening, bringing moderate to heavy rains
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Refer to TD 06W for more up-
dates.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (06:00 GMT) 06 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.6º N...LONGITUDE 129.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 560 KM (300
NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 765 KM (413 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 870 KM (470 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 870 KM (470 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 405 KM (220 NM)/ AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME AUGUST 06
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.2N 127.1E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.9N 124.8E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 25.1N 120.9E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH


REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST POSITION: 21.4N 130.1E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PABUK) HAS UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED UNDER THE MAIN CONVEC-
TION WITH CONVERGENT BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATE-
LLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE LLCC UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTION,
WHILE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION FLARING ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC..
.(more)

>> PABUK {pronounced: pa~book}, meaning: Big fresh water fish. 
  
Name contributed by: Lao PDR.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 21.6N 130.6E / WNW @ 23 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS PABUK (CHEDENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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