Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W forms near Palau Island...[CORRECTION]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #01

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W* [UNNAMED]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 30 JUNE 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 30 JUNE 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #001
*-Correction: Change to 04W not 01W & July dates.
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THE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA (TROPICAL DISTURBANCE) OVER THE
CAROLINE ISLANDS HAS STRENGTHENED INTO NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 04W (UNNAMED)...DANGEROUSLY DRIFTING WEST-NORTH-
WEST TOWARDS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 04W is expected to continue drifting for
the next 12 to 24 hours before turning NW'ly. Forecast to
enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early
morning Monday, July 3*. This system is likely to reach
typhoon strength early morning Sunday, July 2*.

+ EFFECTS: 04W's main core is slowly organizing and streng-
thening with its Outer (feeder) Bands now slowly approaching
the tiny Micronesian islands of Palau and Yap. The storm's
core particularly the inner & outer bands are expected to
bring moderate to heavy torrential rains with strong winds
that could produce flying debris, life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas
and mountain slopes over the affected areas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This newly-formed system is not
yet enhancing the Southwest (SW) Monsoon.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 30 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 6.2º N...LONGITUDE 138.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 435 KM (235 NM) ESE OF KOROR, PALAU, FSM

DISTANCE 2: 370 KM (200 NM) SOUTH OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

DISTANCE 3: 1,460 KM (788 NM) ESE OF SURIGAO CITY, MINDANAO, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PALAU-YAP AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM FRI JUNE 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 JUNE: 6.4N 137.6E / 65-85 KPH [Trop Storm]
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 01 JULY: 6.9N 137.0E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 30 JUNE POSITION: 6.1N 138.5E.
^ THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN
25 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS...(more info)

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
      highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
      explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
   this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on the TD 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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