Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 03W (DOMENG)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #05

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W [DOMENG]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 27 JUNE 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 27 JUNE 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #003

Note: The source of this data is now taken from JTWC warnings.
Previously, we relay data from PAGASA Bulletins.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (DOMENG) CONTINUES TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA..THREATENS SOUTHERN CHINA
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 03W is expected turn more northerly in a
heading that would bring the system over Western Guangdong,
Southern China in 48 hours (Thursday early morning). This
system is likely to become a Tropical Storm today.

+ EFFECTS: 03W's Inner (Rain) bands is now well organizing
over the South China including its Outer (Feeder) Bands -
which is now approaching Hainan Island. These rainbands
particularly the inner bands are expected to bring moderate
to heavy torrential rains with strong winds that could
produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected areas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate Southwest Monsoon is
being drawn by this storm towards the western sections of
the Philippines particularly Palawan. The affected areas
will continue to experience cloudy skies with light to
moderate/heavy rains today & tomorrow.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.0º N...LONGITUDE 116.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 460 KM (248 NM) WEST OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 725 KM (392 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA

DISTANCE 3: 685 KM (370 NM) SE OF QIONGHAI, HAINAN, CHINA

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/MEDIUM
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM TUE JUNE 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - NOW LOWERED.

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 JUNE: 16.9N 115.0E / 65-85 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 JUNE: 18.4N 113.8E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 JUNE POSITION: 15.7N 116.3E.
^ TS 03W IS TRACKING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF OKINAWA. LANDFALL
BETWEEN HAINAN ISLAND AND HONG KONG IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
TRACKING QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SLOW. GIVEN A CONTINUATION
OF THIS TREND, LANDFALL WILL LEAN TOWARDS EARLIER IN
THE ABOVE TIME FRAME.(more info)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 JUNE: 15.6N 115.8E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
      highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
      explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
   this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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