Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Tropical Depression 19W (KIKO) Update Number 001


Tropical Depression 19W (KIKO) Update Number 001





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Tuesday 05 September 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 05 September 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 19W [KIKO] newly-formed over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea…now threatens Extreme Northern Luzon.  Its rainbands are currently spreading across Northern and Central Luzon.

This depression is expected to move northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 22 km/hr, and shall be over the Balintang Channel by early Wednesday morning (Sept 06).  19W (KIKO) could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

*TD 19W (KIKO) together with its associated Trough will bring isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Rest of Luzon, becoming more intense along Extreme Northern Luzon.

Where is 19W (KIKO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 05…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Northwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.0N 124.7E), about 244 km east of Palanan, Isabela or 323 km east-southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 15 kph, towards Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
>> Cagayan, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Babuyan Island Group  – Beginning Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a TS as it traverses the Balintang Channel…about 54 km north-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM Sept 06: 19.8N 121.6E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 575 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue September 05, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.0º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 310 km E of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 349 km E of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 3: 409 km NNE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 417 km ENE of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 5: 474 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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