Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Tropical Depression 19W (KIKO) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression 19W (KIKO) Update Number 002





Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 05 September 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 05 September 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 19W [KIKO] has moved northward during the past 6 hours and weakened slightly due to strong upper-level winds, which displaced its thick rainbands across Northern Luzon.  Heavy to extreme rainfall expected across the northern areas of Cagayan, Abra and Ilocos Provinces. 

This depression is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 24 km/hr, and shall be over the western part of Bashi Channel by Wednesday morning (Sept 06).  19W (KIKO) is likely to weaken and dissipate into a low pressure area (LPA) later today.

*TD 19W (KIKO) together with its associated Trough will continue to bring scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Central and Northern Luzon, becoming more intense along Extreme Northern Luzon.

Where is 19W (KIKO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 05…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.3N 124.8E), about 280 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 334 km east-northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North @ 24 kph, towards Babuyan Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
>> Cagayan, Abra, Ilocos Provinces, Babuyan Island Group  – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipating over the West Bashi Channel, just an area of low pressure…about 129 km west-northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8AM Sept 06: 19.9N 120.4E @ 35kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 630 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue September 05, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.3º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 323 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 369 km ESE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 379 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 415 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 575 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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