Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Tropical Depression 21W (MARING) Update Number 003


Tropical Depression 21W (MARING) Update Number 003





Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Tuesday 12 September 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Wednesday, 13 September 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 21W (MARING) is now over Southern Zambales as it approaches the Towns of San Narciso and Cabangan…occasional rains and gusty winds continues to be felt across the western parts of Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila.

This depression is expected to emerge along the west coast of Zambales  later tonight, with a westward turn across the West Philippine Sea for the next 24 hours.  21W (MARING) is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow morning (Sept 13).

*TD 21W (MARING) and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring moderate to heavy to at times torrential rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and portions of Western Visayas. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is 21W (MARING)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 12…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the southern foothills of Mt. Pinatubo (near 15.0N 120.4E), about 22 km northeast of Olongapo City, Zambales or 28 km west-southwest of San Fernando City, Pampanga.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

*At 5pm today, wind gusts of 67 km/hr blowing from the Southeast was reported at the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) in  San Fernando City, Pampanga (ID #980358).

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards Zambales-West Philippine Sea Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Currently Overland (Along Southwestern Zambales).
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
>> Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it passes over Scarborough Shoal…about 295 km west-southwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 13: 15.0N 117.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responcsibility (PAR) or over the South China Sea, as it  strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 715 km west of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 14: 16.0N 113.3E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue September 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.0º N Lat 120.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 38 km NNW of Balanga City, Bataan
Distance 2: 57 km SSW of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 3: 73 km WSW of Gapan City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 4: 21 km NE of Subic Bay, Zambales
Distance 5: 85 km NW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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