Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Tropical Depression 21W (MARING) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression 21W (MARING) Update Number 002





Issued at: 1:45 PM PhT (05:45 GMT) Tuesday 12 September 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 September 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 21W (MARING) is now traversing the Northern part of Quezon City after making landfall over Real, Quezon between 10-11am this morning.  Heavy rains will be expected across the Metropolis and nearby areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces today.

This depression is expected to move turn west-northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr, and shall be over Zambales or very close to Subic Bay early this evening  (8pm). 21W shall emerge over the west coast of Zambales early tomorrow morning and over the West Philippine Sea before noon Wednesday (Sept 13).

*TD 21W (MARING) and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring moderate to heavy to at times torrential rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is 21W (MARING)?As of 12:00 PM PhT today, September 12…0400 GMT.  The center was located in the vicinity of San Mateo, Rizal (near 14.7N 121.2E), about 12 km northeast of Antipolo, Rizal or 21 km northeast of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 18 kph, towards Southern Pampanga-Zambales Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Currently Overland (Along Northern Quezon City-Southern Bulacan Area).
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
>> Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea, moving west-northwest…about 235 km west-southwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 13: 15.5N 117.9E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responcsibility (PAR) as it slows down and strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 351 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Sept 14: 17.5N 117.0E @ 190kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 645 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue September 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.7º N Lat 121.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 25 km ESE of Meycauayan City, Bulacan
Distance 2: 43 km NNE of San Pedro City, Laguna
Distance 3: 45 km ESE of Malolos City, Bulacan
Distance 4: 51 km N of Cabuyao City, Laguna
Distance 5: 59 km NE of Trece Martires City, Cavite

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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