Wednesday, September 18, 2013

TS USAGI (ODETTE) Update #005


for Wednesday, 18 September 2013 [2:03 PM PhT]


Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Wednesday 18 September 2013

Tropical Storm USAGI (ODETTE) barely moving over the north central part of the Philippine Sea with little change in strength...could become a Typhoon (Category 1) later tonight or Thursday. This cyclone remains a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan Area.

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Bataan, Batangas and Visayas today...and will start to affect Western & Central Luzon including Metro Manila and CaLaBaRZon beginning late Thursday thru Sunday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 90W - located over the South China Sea continues to organize and could become a Tropical Depression within the next 6 to 24 hours. Its center was located about 985 km west-northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan or 310 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam (16.3N Lat 111.1E Lon)...with maximum winds of 35 km/hr near the center...currently moving very slowly westerly towards Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Usagi (Odette) was located over the north central part of the Philippine Sea...about 830 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 860 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...currently quasi-stationary but will move later westward towards the Batanes-Taiwan Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-120 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Usagi (Odette) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).


TS Usagi (Odette) is expected to resume moving west to west-northwest slowly during the next 24 hours...turning northwestward through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will remain over the open waters of the Philippine Sea as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon through Friday.

TS Usagi (Odette) will continue to intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...and will become a Typhoon (TY) later today. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds increasing to 175 km/hr on Friday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a TY (Category 1) as it moves west-northwest to northwest slowly across the north central part of the Philippine Sea...about 580 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [11AM SEP 19: 17.6N 127.6E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it turns northwestward closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...about 350 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [11AM SEP 20: 18.9N 124.9E @ 175kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Moving northwestward in the vicinity of Batanes Islands...strengthens to a Category 3 Typhoon...about 15 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [11AM SEP 21: 20.6N 122.1E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 18, 2013
Class/Name: TS Usagi (Odette)
Location of Center: Near 17.1º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 830 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 860 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 905 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 940 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 950 km ESE of Calayan Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)


CURRENT TRACKING MAP: _____________________________________________________________________________





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:


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