Sunday, September 15, 2013

TS MAN-YI (16W) Update #005


for Sunday, 15 September 2013 [8:07 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Sunday 15 September 2013

Tropical Storm MAN-YI (16W) starts turning to the north as it intensifies...heading towards Southern Honshu. Its outermost rainbands continues to spread across the southern coast of Japan.

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across the coastal areas of Southern Luzon, Bataan, MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Man-yi (16W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Man-yi (16W) was located over the Western Pacific Ocean...about 575 km south-southeast of Kochi, Japan or 945 km southwest of Tokyo, Japan...currently moving north-northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr towards Southern Honshu, Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers from the center. Man-yi (16W) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,020 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Man-yi is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).


TS Man-yi (16W) is expected to move northerly during the next 12 hours...with a recurvature to the north-northeast to northeast by 24 hours. By 48 hours, the system will rapidly accelerate northeasterward. On the forecast track, the core of Man-Yi will be approaching the southern shores of Honshu later this afternoon or evening...and will make landfall over Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures in Honshu, Japan on Monday morning. The system will be along the seas south of Kuril Islands on Tuesday morning.

TS Man-yi will continue to strengthen during the next 12 hours...and could be near-Typhoon intensity by early Monday morning. After 24 hours, this system will start to weaken. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds reaching 100 km/hr prior in making landfall to Southern Honshu.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Intensifies while over the Southern Coast of Honshu (Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures)...accelerates rapidly to the northeast...about 190 km west-southwest of Tokyo, Japan [5AM SEP 16: 34.7N 138.0E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves very fast towards the northeast...about 300 km south of Kuril Island Chain [5AM SEP 17: 42.6N 148.8E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-120 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (Over Western Pacific Ocean).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The Southern Coastal Areas of Japan (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas to the north, northwest and near the center of Man-yi (16W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Sep 15, 2013
Class/Name: TS Man-yi (16W)
Location of Center: Near 28.5º N Lat 134.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 500 km E of Amami Is., Japan
Distance 2: 575 km SSE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 585 km SSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 4: 690 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 945 km SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 26 kph
Towards: Southern Honshu
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,020 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)


CURRENT TRACKING MAP: _____________________________________________________________________________





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS MAN-YI (16W)...go visit our website @:


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