Thursday, March 25, 2010

TS OMAIS (AGATON) - Update #010

 


for Thursday, 25 March 2010 [12:19 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu March 25 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS OMAIS (AGATON).


OMAIS (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM OMAIS [AGATON/02W/1001]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 25 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Storm OMAIS (AGATON) has already reached its peak strength and is now showing signs of decaying...continues on its NNW track across the Central Philippine Sea.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu Mar 25 2010
    Location of Center: 15.2º N Lat 131.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 815 km (440 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 855 km (462 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 3: 920 km (497 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 4: 1,025 km (553 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 5: 1,140 km (615 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 987 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
    Towards: Central Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    T2K TrackMap #004 (for Public):
    12 PM PhT Thu Mar 25

    + Forecast Outlook: OMAIS (AGATON) is expected to start weakening while moving NNW-ward within the next 12 hours, then turning Northward by tomorrow morning [8AM MAR 26: 17.0N 130.9E...about 800 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes]. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows OMAIS executing a recurvature towards the NNE beginning Friday evening as it rapidly dissipates along the Northern Philippine Sea [8AM MAR 27: 18.4N 131.3E...about 1,015 km East of Aparri, Cagayan]. Majority of the Global Forecast Guidance Models agree on this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: OMAIS' rainbands remain over the ocean...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (heavy rain) near the center of OMAIS (AGATON). Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers & rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN & EASTERN BICOL REGION & NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of up to 8 to 10 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur beginning tomorrow until Monday.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TS OMAIS (AGATON)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Mar 25
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 25 MARCH: 16.1N 131.0E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / N @ 09 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 26 MARCH: 17.0N 130.9E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / N @ 07 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 27 MARCH: 18.4N 131.3E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 25 MARCH POSITION: 14.9N 131.7E.

    *TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
    NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, SHOWED CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION DURING THE
    FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LLCC MAY HAVE STARTED TO
    DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS.
    THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, TS 02W INTENSIFIED AS IT TRACKED WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) UNDER
    THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    AHEAD OF A UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS OMAIS HAS STARTED TO
    TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
    AND RJTD RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS...
    (
    more)

    >> OMAIS, meaning: Palauan word for "wandering around"Name contributed by: United States of America.
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    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

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    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 02W (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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