Monday, March 22, 2010

TD 02W (UNNAMED) - Update #002

 


for Monday, 22 March 2010 [5:20 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon March 22 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 02W.


02W (TWO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 22 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Depression 02W (UNNAMED) has been relocated while heading towards Yap-Ulithi Area.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 02W.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Mar 22 2010
    Location of Center: 8.4º N Lat 141.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 415 km (225 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 2: 735 km (397 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 650 km (350 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 4: 800 km (432 nm) ENE of Palau, FSM
    Distance 5: 1,705 km (920 nm) ESE of Northern Mindanao
    Distance 6: 1,960 km (1,060 nm) ESE of Bicol Region
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 125 mm [Moderate]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: NNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
    Towards: Yap-Ulithi Area
    Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 PM PhT Mon Mar 22

    + Forecast Outlook: 02W is expected to resume moving NW-ward within the next 2 to 5 days, passing very close to Yap Island tomorrow afternoon as a minimal Tropical Storm [2PM MAR 23: 9.8N 138.5E]. The system is now forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR) by Wednesday afternoon as an 85-kph Tropical Storm and will move into the Philippine Sea [2PM MAR 24: 11.5N 135.1E]. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 02W maintaining its strength (85 kph) on Thursday before losing strength on Friday while over the Central Philippine Sea or about 730 km. ENE of Bicol Region [2PM MAR 25: 13.5N 132.7E...2PM MAR 26: 15.0N 131.1E]. 02W will continue losing strength while moving NW across the Central Philippine Sea on Saturday afternoon [2PM MAR 27: 15.5N 130.1E]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 02W's sheared outer rainbands continues to spread into Yap & Ulithi Islands...Light to Moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ squalls can be expected today. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 125 mm (moderate rain) near the center of 02W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing isolated showers & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PARTS OF VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate easterly to variable winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TD 02W (UNNAMED)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 23 MARCH: 8.9N 140.6E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 20 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 23 MARCH: 9.8N 138.5E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 19 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 24 MARCH: 11.5N 135.1E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 MARCH: 13.5N 132.7E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 09 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 22 MARCH POSITION: 7.9N 142.6E.

    *THE TD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
    DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE HELD AT A 1.5 OR 25 KNOTS.
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS
    ESTIMATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN A STRONGER LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAN THE CONVECTION (OR DVORAK)
    SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, THE OFF HOUR ESTIMATE FROM KNES DOES INDICATE A
    30 KNOT LLCC. THE INITIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED TO 08 KNOTS TO
    ACCOUNT FOR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE
    SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THIS SLOW DOWN REPLICATES
    THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. A 220411Z AMSRE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
    PLACEMENT OF THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. STRONG DIFFLUENT
    EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE BIASING THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TOWARDS THE
    WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION AND MAKING IS DIFFICULT FOR THE
    SYSTEM TO VERTICALLY STACK, THUS RETARDING MARKED INTENSIFICATION.
    THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST 72
    HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TRACK SPEED. THE STORM WILL TRACK
    NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A
    TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES AND WEAKEN
    THE RIDGE INCITING A MORE NORTH OF WEST TRACK AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU
    72 THE TD WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (VWS) AS THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND THE
    AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
    SHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE LLCC TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
    WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS REASONING IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
    TRACK REASONING. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO
    45 KNOTS SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY AND VWS IS
    EXPECTED TO ELEVATE AS SOON AS TAU 72...
    (
    more)
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "NIGHT-VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 02W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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