for Monday, 22 March 2010 [5:20 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon March 22 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 02W.
02W (TWO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 22 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 02W (UNNAMED) has been relocated while heading towards Yap-Ulithi Area.
*Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 02W.
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Mar 22 2010
Location of Center: 8.4º N Lat 141.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 415 km (225 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 735 km (397 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 650 km (350 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 800 km (432 nm) ENE of Palau, FSM
Distance 5: 1,705 km (920 nm) ESE of Northern Mindanao
Distance 6: 1,960 km (1,060 nm) ESE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 125 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Area
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Mar 22
+ Forecast Outlook: 02W is expected to resume moving NW-ward within the next 2 to 5 days, passing very close to Yap Island tomorrow afternoon as a minimal Tropical Storm [2PM MAR 23: 9.8N 138.5E]. The system is now forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR) by Wednesday afternoon as an 85-kph Tropical Storm and will move into the Philippine Sea [2PM MAR 24: 11.5N 135.1E]. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 02W maintaining its strength (85 kph) on Thursday before losing strength on Friday while over the Central Philippine Sea or about 730 km. ENE of Bicol Region [2PM MAR 25: 13.5N 132.7E...2PM MAR 26: 15.0N 131.1E]. 02W will continue losing strength while moving NW across the Central Philippine Sea on Saturday afternoon [2PM MAR 27: 15.5N 130.1E]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects & Hazards: 02W's sheared outer rainbands continues to spread into Yap & Ulithi Islands...Light to Moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ squalls can be expected today. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 125 mm (moderate rain) near the center of 02W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing isolated showers & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PARTS OF VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate easterly to variable winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TD 02W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0210.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 MARCH: 8.9N 140.6E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 MARCH: 9.8N 138.5E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 24 MARCH: 11.5N 135.1E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon March 22 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 02W.
02W (TWO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 22 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
*Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 02W.
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Mar 22 2010
Location of Center: 8.4º N Lat 141.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 415 km (225 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 735 km (397 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 650 km (350 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 800 km (432 nm) ENE of Palau, FSM
Distance 5: 1,705 km (920 nm) ESE of Northern Mindanao
Distance 6: 1,960 km (1,060 nm) ESE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 125 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Area
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Mar 22
+ Forecast Outlook: 02W is expected to resume moving NW-ward within the next 2 to 5 days, passing very close to Yap Island tomorrow afternoon as a minimal Tropical Storm [2PM MAR 23: 9.8N 138.5E]. The system is now forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR) by Wednesday afternoon as an 85-kph Tropical Storm and will move into the Philippine Sea [2PM MAR 24: 11.5N 135.1E]. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 02W maintaining its strength (85 kph) on Thursday before losing strength on Friday while over the Central Philippine Sea or about 730 km. ENE of Bicol Region [2PM MAR 25: 13.5N 132.7E...2PM MAR 26: 15.0N 131.1E]. 02W will continue losing strength while moving NW across the Central Philippine Sea on Saturday afternoon [2PM MAR 27: 15.5N 130.1E]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects & Hazards: 02W's sheared outer rainbands continues to spread into Yap & Ulithi Islands...Light to Moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ squalls can be expected today. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 125 mm (moderate rain) near the center of 02W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing isolated showers & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PARTS OF VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate easterly to variable winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TD 02W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0210.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 MARCH: 8.9N 140.6E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 MARCH: 9.8N 138.5E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 24 MARCH: 11.5N 135.1E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 25 MARCH: 13.5N 132.7E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 09 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 22 MARCH POSITION: 7.9N 142.6E.
*THE TD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE HELD AT A 1.5 OR 25 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS
ESTIMATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAN THE CONVECTION (OR DVORAK)
SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, THE OFF HOUR ESTIMATE FROM KNES DOES INDICATE A
30 KNOT LLCC. THE INITIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED TO 08 KNOTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THIS SLOW DOWN REPLICATES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. A 220411Z AMSRE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. STRONG DIFFLUENT
EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE BIASING THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TOWARDS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION AND MAKING IS DIFFICULT FOR THE
SYSTEM TO VERTICALLY STACK, THUS RETARDING MARKED INTENSIFICATION.
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST 72
HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TRACK SPEED. THE STORM WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES AND WEAKEN
THE RIDGE INCITING A MORE NORTH OF WEST TRACK AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU
72 THE TD WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AS THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
SHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE LLCC TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS REASONING IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
TRACK REASONING. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO
45 KNOTS SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY AND VWS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE AS SOON AS TAU 72...(more)
____________
____________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "NIGHT-VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html )____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 02W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
>
> http://www.maybagyo
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