Thursday, March 25, 2010

TS 02W (AGATON) - Update #009

 


for Thursday, 25 March 2010 [7:58 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu March 25 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS OMAIS (AGATON).


OMAIS (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM OMAIS [AGATON/02W/1001]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 25 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #013
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Storm OMAIS (AGATON) rapidly gained strength as it jogs to the NNW while over the Central Philippine Sea...Not a threat to the Philippines.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu Mar 25 2010
    Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 132.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 855 km (462 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
    Distance 2: 870 km (470 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 3: 910 km (492 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 4: 980 km (530 nm) ENE of Naga City
    Distance 5: 1,205 km (650 nm) East of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    95 kph (50 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 987 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: NNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    Towards: Central Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    T2K TrackMap #002 (for Public):
    6 AM PhT Thu Mar 25

    + Forecast Outlook: OMAIS (AGATON) is expected to move NW to NNW-ward within the next 24 hours, across the central part of the Philippine Sea, reaching peak intensity of 100 kph this afternoon [2PM MAR 25: 15.4N 130.9E...about 750 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes]. It will start losing strength, early tomorrow morning due to strong upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) that will affect the storm [2AM MAR 26: 16.5N 130.4E]. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows OMAIS executing a recurvature towards the NNE on Friday as it rapidly dissipates [2AM MAR 27: 17.7N 130.7E...about 955 km East of Tuguegarao City]. Still, majority of the Global Forecast Guidance Models agree on this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: OMAIS' rainbands remain over the ocean...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (heavy rain) near the center of OMAIS (AGATON). Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TS OMAIS (AGATON)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Mar 25
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 25 MARCH: 15.4N 130.9E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NNW @ 11 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 26 MARCH: 16.5N 130.4E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / N @ 05 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 27 MARCH: 17.7N 130.7E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 25 MARCH POSITION: 14.1N 132.1E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
    ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO
    55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THAT THE SYTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
    IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
    ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE
    TROUGH. TS OMAIS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WHILE IT
    REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
    WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF
    INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
    APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48 TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE
    OVER WATER AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
    GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY TAUS. IN THE LATER
    TAUS, GFDN AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD, WHILE
    WBAR AND GFS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND QUICKLY
    MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...
    (
    more)
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    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 02W (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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