Bushman's Typhoon Blog: March 2010

Friday, March 26, 2010

TS OMAIS (AGATON) - Final Update

for Friday, 26 March 2010 [6:37 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri March 26 2010):

Ending the 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS OMAIS (AGATON).

OMAIS (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM OMAIS [AGATON/02W/1001]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014 (FINAL)
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 26 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #019 (Final)
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

OMAIS (AGATON) regains Tropical Storm strength but is losing tropical characteristics...becoming Extratropical as it merges with a passing Frontal System south of Japan.

*This is the Final Advisory on the Philippines' first tropical cyclone of 2010.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Mar 26 2010
Location of Center: 18.8º N Lat 132.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 965 km (520 nm) SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,095 km (590 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 1,120 km (605 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1,145 km (618 nm) SW of Iwo To
Distance 5: 1,290 km (697 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Present Movement: NNE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Central Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K Final TrackMap #008 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Fri Mar 26

+ Forecast Outlook: OMAIS (AGATON) is expected to complete Extratropical transition w/in the next 12 to 24 hours [2PM MAR 27: 19.3N 133.3E...1,190 km ESE of Basco, Batanes].

+ Effects & Hazards: OMAIS' decaying rainbands remain over the sea...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy rain) situated along the northeastern periphery of OMAIS' (AGATON) center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with occasional drizzles-showers-rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, AURORA, QUEZON, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 45 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 10 to 12 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur beginning today until Monday.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TS OMAIS (AGATON)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Final Tracking Chart: wp0210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Mar 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 27 MARCH: 18.8N 132.6E / 45-65 KPH (XT) / NE @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 MARCH: 19.3N 133.3E / 35-55 KPH (XT)

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH POSITION: 18.2N 131.9E.
*THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS HELPED SUSTAIN DEEP, ALBEIT SHEARED
CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ELEVATED TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMMS ANALYSIS. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, THROUGH PGTW IS NO LONGER
CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL. AMSU TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTIONS
FROM 252000Z INDICATE THAT THE WARM CORE IS SHEARED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A COOLER
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH A 260429 AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS THE LLCC LAGGING BEHIND THE SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND WILL INCORPORATE INTO THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BECOMING FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS A CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WHICH HAD CALLED FOR DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION..(more)

>> OMAIS, meaning: Palauan word for "wandering around". Name contributed by: United States of America.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH: 18.3N 132.3E / NE @ 17 kph / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS OMAIS (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TD OMAIS (AGATON) - Update #013

for Friday, 26 March 2010 [1:30 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri March 26 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD OMAIS (AGATON).

OMAIS (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAIS [AGATON/02W/1001]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 26 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #018
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression OMAIS (AGATON) struggling over the Northern Philippine Sea...likely to dissipate by tomorrow.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Mar 26 2010
Location of Center: 18.3º N Lat 131.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 970 km (525 nm) NE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 2: 1,035 km (560 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1,040 km (562 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,045 km (565 nm) East of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,200 km (648 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NNE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Central Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #007 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Fri Mar 26

+ Forecast Outlook: OMAIS (AGATON) is expected to weaken w/in the next 12 hours and will completely dissipate by tomorrow morning, with its remnants being absorbed into the approaching Cold Front and the NE Monsoon [8AM MAR 27: 18.5N 131.9E...1,060 km ESE of Basco, Batanes]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: OMAIS' decaying rainbands remain over the sea...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy rain) situated along the northeastern periphery of OMAIS' (AGATON) center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with occasional drizzles-showers-rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, AURORA, QUEZON, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of up to 8 to 10 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur beginning today until Monday.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TD OMAIS (AGATON)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Mar 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 26 MARCH: 18.1N 131.7E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / NNE @ 04 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 27 MARCH: 18.5N 131.9E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH POSITION: 17.5N 131.5E.
*OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TD 02W HAS WEAKENED UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARDS THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC
ZONE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS SHEARED FROM MAIN CONVECTION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM HAS RE-DEVELOPED CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, POSSIBLY DUE TO AN ENHANCED
THERMAL GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE GRADUAL ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AIR FRO
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL STREAMING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, LEAVING THE LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 252326Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 30
TO 35 KNOTS...(more)

>> OMAIS, meaning: Palauan word for "wandering around". Name contributed by: United States of America.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH: 17.7N 132.2E / NNE @ 11 kph / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD OMAIS (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 3

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Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use

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TS OMAIS (AGATON) - Update #012

for Friday, 26 March 2010 [8:30 AM PhT]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAIS [AGATON/02W/1001]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 26 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

OMAIS (AGATON) just a Tropical Depression...its wind circulation continues to decay, however, deep convection (rain clouds) continues to survive within its periphery. The approaching Cold Front & late-season NE Monsoon located off Taiwan will continue to dissipate OMAIS in the coming hours.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Mar 26 2010
Location of Center: 16.5º N Lat 131.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 800 km (432 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 830 km (450 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 3: 895 km (483 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 950 km (513 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 1,090 km (588 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Central Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #006 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Fri Mar 26

+ Forecast Outlook: OMAIS (AGATON) is expected to continue to weaken w/in the next 12 hours [2PM MAR 26: 16.9N 131.2E...about 1,010 km ESE of Tuguegarao City]. It will completely dissipate by early tomorrow morning, with its remnants being absorbed into the approaching Cold Front and NE Monsoon [2AM MAR 27: 17.2N 130.8E...965 km ESE of Tuguegarao City]. The remnants of OMAIS is likely to move SW-ward across the Philippine Sea and might bring scattered rains or showers across Quezon, Bicol Region and Northern Visayas within the next 2 to 3 days. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: OMAIS' decaying rainbands remain over the sea...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy rain) situated along the northeastern periphery of OMAIS' (AGATON) center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with occasional drizzles-showers-rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, AURORA, QUEZON, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of up to 8 to 10 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur beginning today until Monday.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TD OMAIS (AGATON)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Mar 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 26 MARCH: 16.9N 131.2E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / NW @ 04 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 MARCH: 17.2N 130.8E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH POSITION: 16.0N 131.2E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, LOCATED SOUTHWEST
OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME DECOUPLED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE THE
RECENT, FLARING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE. NEVERTHELESS, TD OMAIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
DECOUPLES OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
START TO TURN MORE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE MOVING OUT OF CHINA...(more)

>> OMAIS, meaning: Palauan word for "wandering around". Name contributed by: United States of America.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH: 17.1N 132.6E / NNE @ 11 kph / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD OMAIS (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm