Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE) now heading NE slowly... [Update #012]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #012

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) MON 15 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #027
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM TAIWAN...EYES

SOUTHERN KYUSHU.

*Residents along SE & Eastern China, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast
of Kyushu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to slowly accelerate ENE later

tonight, accelerating for the next 5-days. The system shall be downgraded

into a Tropical Storm tomorrow evening or Wednesday. It is then forecast

to lose its tropical characteristics, becoming an Extratropical Cyclone
on Thursday or Friday while passing along the coast of Southern Kyushu.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's slightly decoupled core is now located offshore,

northeast of Taiwan. The typhoon's inner and outer bands continues to

affect Central & Northern Taiwan, Yaeyama Islands, SE & Eastern Coas-

al areas of China, & Okinawa. Cloudy skies w/ moderate to heavy

squalls with winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected along its

outer bands, with increasing winds and more pronounce rainfall within

the inner bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 & up to 400 mm

can be expected along these bands...with isolated accumulations of

500 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas

& steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-

threatening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to

5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous ba-

ttering waves can be expected near and to the north of SINLAKU's pro-

jected path particularly on where the center passes by. Minimal to

moderate damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY:

The weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues

to be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) - across Northwestern Luzon. This

wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible

"on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not

exceeding 30 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) MON 15 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 26.5º N...LONGITUDE 121.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 165 KM (90 NM) NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 235 KM (127 NM) ENE OF FUZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 190 KM (103 NM) SSE OF WENZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 4: 635 KM (343 NM) WEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 0NE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN COAST OF KYUSHU, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 610 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME MON SEP 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 27.0N 122.2E / 130-160 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 27.7N 123.5E / 130-160 KPH / ENE @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 28.9N 126.0E / 110-140 KPH / ENE @ 19 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 30.7N 130.1E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 26.3N 121.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) SINLAKU (15W) HAS REINTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AFTER TRACKING
AWAY FROM NORTHERN TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 141934Z TMI 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWED TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS IMAGE AS WELL AS RECENT RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN INDICATE THE
SYSTEM HAS DEFINITELY TRACKED IN A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT, IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ALL INDICATE A RECURV-
ATURE...THIS INCLUDES ALL MEMBERS OF THE JGSM ENSEMBLE...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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