Monday, September 08, 2008

TD MARCE (95W) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCE [95W] 
Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 08 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / MTSAT-1R SATELLITE FIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCE (95W) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING HEAVY DOWNPOUR
ACROSS THE BICOL REGION AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, FROM
CAGAYAN DOWN TO NORTHERN QUEZON.

*Residents along the Eastern Coast of Luzon (from Batanes down to Aurora) should closely
monitor the progress of this tropical cyclone.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MARCE is now expected to move on a slow NNW track
within the next 24 to 36 hours, reaching Tropical Storm status late
tonight or early tomorrow morning. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast
shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm or typhoon on Wednesday
or Thursday (Sep 10-11) as it starts to track more Northward in the di-
rection of Taiwan-Okinawa-Southern Japan area. More detailed forecast on
this potential weather threat in the coming updates. 

+ EFFECTS: MARCE's circulation continues to consolidate over the Philippine
Sea with its outer bands spreading across the Bicol Region and the eastern
coast of Luzon. Widespread moderate to heavy rains & thunderstorms accom-
panied with some winds not exceeding 30 km/hr can be expected along these
bands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bu-
lusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUD-
FLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must
stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this depression are
likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas
& steep slopes must seek evacuation for possible flash floods & landslides
due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precau-
tionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
The Southwest (SW) Monsoon may be enhanced by
TD MARCE later tonight or tomorrow across the Visayas, Palawan, Western
Mindanao and Southern Luzon. This wind system is expected to bring mostly
cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy
rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr over the affected areas. Landslides,
mudflows (lahars) and flash floods is likely to occur along steep
mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of
the affected areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the
whole Philippines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunder-
storms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.1º N...LONGITUDE 126.0º
DISTANCE 1: 340 KM (185
NM) NNE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 410 KM (220 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH  
DISTANCE 3: 415 KM (225 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 4: 485 KM (265 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 525 KM (285 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1001 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME MON SEPTEMBER 08

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA & NORTHERN AURORA.
#01 - CATANDUANES, POLILLO ISLAND, REST OF AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, 
      BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, ILOCOS SUR, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, 
      KALINGA, APAYAO, BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS AND BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.


_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 08 SEPTEMBER: 16.2N 126.3E / NW @ 15 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD MARCE (95W)...go visit
our website @:

>
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