Monday, September 22, 2008

Typhoon HAGUPIT (NINA) to pass over Extreme Northern Luzon this PM... [Update #007]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TYPHOON HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 22 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #013
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
HAGUPIT (NINA) NOW A 140-KPH CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON...DANGEROUSLY CLOSING
IN TO EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON...HEAVY SQUALLS WITHIN ITS RAINBANDS
AFFECTING CAGAYAN AND BATANES.

*Residents along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the
progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT is expected to turn WNW to Westward today...
its core expected to pass over or very close to the South of Batanes
Island later tonight. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows HAGUPIT
moving into the South China Sea tomorrow morning, reaching Category 3
strength w/ winds of 185 kph. The typhoon shall be approaching the sou-
thern coast of Guangdong Province of China, near Hong Kong-Macau area
tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning (Sep 24)...making landfall
just west of Macau Wednesday afternoon. HAGUPIT shall dissipate along
Northern Vietnam on Friday Sep 26.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's large circulation remains over the Philippine Sea
w/ its core (eye + eyewall) moving closer to Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes
Islands. Its inner rainbands now spreading across Cagayan & Apayao...
while its outer bands has started moving across the whole of Northern
Luzon. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds not excee-
ding 60 km/hr can be expected along its outer bands with inceasing wind
speeds along its inner bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be
expected this afternoon across Extreme Northern Luzon, as the core of
HAGUPIT passes by. 24-hr rainfall accumulations of up to 400 mm can be
expected along the inner bands and eyewall with isolated amounts reaching
500 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas &
steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threa-
tening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought
about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the east of HAGUPIT's projected path particularly on where
the center passes by across Extreme Northern Luzon. Minimal damage is
possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The
surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Metro Manila,
Western & Southern Luzon including Bicol, Visayas, Palawan & Mindoro. This
wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-
off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding
40 km/hr
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) MON 22 SEP 2008 
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.0º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º
DISTANCE 1: 285 KM (155
NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 285 KM (155 NM) ESE OF CALAYAN IS., CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 280 KM (150 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 305 KM (165 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/
LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
5 AM MANILA TIME MON SEP 22
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO 
      & ILOCOS NORTE.
#02 - ISABELA, KALINGA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE & ILOCOS SUR.

#01 - AURORA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, IFUGAO, BENGUET, 
      LA UNION, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, & QUIRINO.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 19.7N 122.5E / 165-205 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.4N 120.0E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 21.5N 114.6E / 160-195 KPH / W @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 22.0N 109.3E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.7N 124.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 18W (HAGUPIT) HAS SURPASSED TROPICAL STORM CLASSIFICATION
WITH AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. POSITION CONFIDENCE HAS
REMAINED SOMEWHAT POOR DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAR-CUT LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER AS OUTLINED BY THE SURROUNDING CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS.
NONETHELESS, PROMINENT SPIRAL BANDING HAS PERSISTED, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
...
(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog
   
Name contributed by: Philippines.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 18.8N 124.0E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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>
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