Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAGUPIT (NINA) exits PAR...accelerating towards HK area... [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: TYPHOON HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 23 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #017
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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POWERFUL TYPHOON HAGUPIT (NINA) HAS JUST LEFT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (PAR), BUT DUE ITS LARGE CIRCULATION, ITS EFFECTS ARE

STILL BEING FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LUZON...ENDANGERS GUANGDONG PRO-

VINCE INCLUDING HONG KONG AND MACAU.

*Residents along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT's core is expected to move across the South

China Sea today and is likely to maintain its WNW track for the next 2

days with Category 3 strength. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows

HAGUPIT making landfall along southern coast of Guangdong Province of

China, just to the west of Hong Kong-Macau area tomorrow morning and

shall dissipate along Northern Vietnam on Friday Sep 26.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's very large circulation is now covering much of the

South China Sea. Its inner rainbands no longer covering NW Luzon...while

its outer bands now spreading across the southern coast of China including

Eastern part of Hainan Island. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rain-

fall w/ winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will be expected along its outer bands

with inceasing wind speeds of up to 100 kph over the inner bands. Deteriora-

ting weather conditions can be expected across Southern China and Hainan Is-

land later today as the large typhoon quickly moves closer. 24-hr rainfall

accumulations of 200 up to 400 mm can be expected along the inner bands and

near its eye with isolated amounts reaching 500 mm. Residents in low-lying

areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-

threatening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if

necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal

tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected

near and to the east of HAGUPIT's projected path particularly on where the

center will make landfall over Southern Guangdong. Extensive damage is

possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Metro Manila,
Western & Southern Luzon including Bicol, Visayas, Palawan & Mindoro. This
wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-
off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 60
km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) TUE 23 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.1º N...LONGITUDE 118.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175 NM) WNW OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 305 KM (165 NM) NW OF LAOAG CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 355 KM (192 NM) WSW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 410 KM (220 NM) SSE OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 5: 505 KM (273 NM) ESE OF HONG KONG, CHINA

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 9-12 FEET (2.7-3.9 M)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 948 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: GUANGDONG, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,035 KM (560 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME TUE SEP 23
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO, NORTHWESTERN CAGAYAN, & BABUYAN ISLAND.
#01 - BATANES, CALAYAN, REST OF CAGAYAN, KALINGA, ABRA, MT.PROVINCE,
BENGUET, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, & PANGASINAN.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 116.0E / 195-240 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 21.4N 113.1E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 22.4N 107.7E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 22.8N 104.5E / 35-55 KPH / - @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.9N 119.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 18W (HAGUPIT) HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKED GENERALLY
WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LUZON STRAIT.
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
AIDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TEMPORARILY, YET INHIBITED DEEP
CONVECTION FROM FIRING WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE TROUGH'S CURRENT LOCATION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TYPHOON HAS
ALLOWED CONVECTION TO EXPAND NORTHWARD, IMPROVING STORM
SYMMETRY AND INCREASING SIZE. OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST HAS BEEN CUT
OFF BY THE TROUGH...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.1N 118.7E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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