Thursday, September 18, 2008

Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE) approaching Kyushu... [Update #015]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #015
Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813] 
Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 18 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #039A [AMMENDED]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
RECENT AIRCRAFT RECEONNAISSANCE DATA CONFIRMED WHILE AGO THAT SINLAKU
(MARCE) IS ACTUALLY A TYPHOON...BARRELS DOWN THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
KYUSHU
...RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to continue heading ENE-ward as it
starts transition into an Extratropical Cyclone. It shall pass over the
Southern tip of Kyushu early tonight. The system is forecast to pass across
the southern coast of Shikoku and over Southern Honshu beginning early to-
morrow until Saturday afternoon. The passage of this system over Metropo-
litan Tokyo, expected on Saturday morning between 9 to 10 AM Japan Stan-
dard Time (JST).

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU, despite under moderate Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) (upper-
level winds) - its thick convection continues to organize near the low-level
circulation center (LLCC). The storm's sheared rainbands continues to spread
across Kyushu and Shikoku...shall reach Southern Honshu tomorrow. Cloudy
skies w/ moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding 95 km/hr can be
expected along its rainbands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 & up to
300 mm can be expected along these bands...with isolated amounts reaching
400 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas &
steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threa-
tening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought
about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: 
The strong Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA/1006 MB)
over the Mid-Western Pacific Ocean continues to drift Westward in the di-
rection of the Philippine Sea...now located near lat 16.9N lon 140.6E...
about 595 km East of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...or about
1,925 km East of Luzon, Philippines...packing sustained winds of 38 km/hr.
This disturbance is likely to become a Tropical Depression within the next
for more details. Meanwhile, another Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA/1009 MB)
has developed overnight over the South China Sea...located about 660 km.
West of Mindoro, Philippines [12.3N 114.8E]...with max sustained winds of
30 km/hr near the center...moving West slowly across the South China Sea.
The potential of this disturbance of becoming a Tropical Depression is not
yet conducive as moderate Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) hampers its development.
Kindly click the new & cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis showing the
disturbance and other weather systems.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) THU 18 SEP 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 30.2º N...LONGITUDE 129.9º
DISTANCE 1: 170 KM (92
NM) SSW OF KAGOSHIMA, KYUSHU, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 180 KM (97 NM) NORTH OF NAJE ISLAND, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 450 (243 NM) NNE OF OKINAWA ISLAND, JAPAN
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN KYUSHU, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME THU SEP 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD  
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 31.3N 131.3E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 32.7N 133.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 35.5N 139.7E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 33 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 38.4N 148.2E / 75-95 KPH / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 29.9N 129.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 15W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE
TO THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TS 15W HAS RETURNED TO AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF ERRATIC MOVEMENT FROM 17/18Z-21Z WHERE THE SYSTEM SLOWED
AND TRACKED NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE STRONGER VWS, THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED INTACT AND VERTICALLY STACKED
BASED ON THE 172141Z TMI 37/85 GHZ IMAGES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT
...
(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess
   
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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