Monday, August 18, 2008

TS KAREN (13W) - Update #003


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM KAREN [13W] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 18 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
13W BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM LOCALLY NAMED KAREN...STILL MOVING FAST
ON A WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

*This system may start enhancing the SW Monsoon Rains across the Philippines starting
tomorrow.
 
 


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KAREN is expected to maintain its WNW track for the
next 2 days while traversing the Philippine Sea. The 3 to 5-day long-range
forecast shows KAREN becoming a Typhoon and turning gradually towards the
NW to NNW on Thursday and Friday (Aug 21-22) in the direction of Taiwan.
It shall be approaching the Eastern Coast of Taiwan on early Saturday
morning, Aug 23 with projected wind speed of 205 km/hr. *Alternate Fore-
cast Scenario: There is a possibilty that KAREN may continue moving WNW
passing over Northern Luzon-Batanes Area, if the High Pressure
Steering
Ridge to its North remains strong and extends westward.
 

+ EFFECTS: KAREN's radial circulation and spiral bands remains at sea and
is not yet affecting the Philippines. Once this system reaches the Phili-
ppine Sea, it may enhance the Southwest (SW) Monsoon and bring widespread
rains across the Philippines starting tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY
Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough)
& Southwest Windflow affecting Southern Visayas & Mindanao. It shall bring
widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the
afternoon or evening
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 134.5º
DISTANCE 1: 1,325 KM (715
NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA 
DISTANCE 2: 1,145 KM (618 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH 
DISTANCE 3: 1,380 KM (745 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME MON AUGUST 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 AUGUST: 16.8N 132.4E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 AUGUST: 17.5N 129.8E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 18.4N 125.9E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 AUGUST: 19.7N 123.7E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 AUGUST POSITION: 16.0N 135.2E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM (TS) ON THE 17/12Z
WARNING CYCLE BASED ON MARKEDLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
171005Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALED IMPROVED, CONVERGENT CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUAD-
RANT. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN LIMITED BUT IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72
...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 AUGUST: 15.9N 134.1E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS KAREN (13W)...go visit
our website @:

>
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