Bushman's Typhoon Blog: August 2008

Thursday, August 28, 2008

TD LAWIN (14W) - Final Update

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007 **FINAL**

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 28 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #007 [FINAL]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (14W) FIGHTING FOR LIFE WHILE DISSIPATING OVER

THE BATANES GROUP...UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA REMAINS NOT

CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. COMPLETE DISSIPATION EXPECTED LATER

TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

*This is the Final E-Mail Update on this weak depression.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving NW across the
Bashi Channel and dissipate just to the South of Taiwan by tomorrow
morning.

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with its rainbands
sheared more or less 200 km southwest (SW) of its totally exposed Low
Level Circulation Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is may likely affect
the West Coast of Northern Luzon today - bringing light rains especially
along the mountain slopes & coastal areas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by LAWIN but is retreating over the South China Sea. This wind

system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off"

light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr

across the Western Coast of Luzon including Metro Manila today. Land-

slides, mudflows (lahars) and flash floods is likely to occur along

steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone

areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough)
affecting Southern Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread sca-

ttered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or

evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 28 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.2º N...LONGITUDE 121.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 40 KM (22 NM) SW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 65 KM (35 NM) SOUTH OF ITBAYAT, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 105 KM (57 NM) NNE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 200 KM (108 NM) NORTH OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BASHI CHANNEL
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K FINAL TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME THU AUGUST 28

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.8N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 21.5N 120.5E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 28 AUGUST POSITION: 20.0N 121.9E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE 27/06Z
WARNING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM
WEST. TD 14W HAS ALSO SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN LUZON DUE TO
A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE AND LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL FAIR OVER-
ALL WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS (JGSM, GFS AND ECMWF)...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.4N 121.7E / NNW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD LAWIN (14W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TD LAWIN (14W) weakening while approaching Batanes... [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 28 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #006
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

LAWIN (14W) BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...FULLY-EXPOSED CENTER NOW

APPROACHING THE BATANES GROUP...CONVECTIVE RAINCLOUDS DISPLACED ALONG
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND NORTHWESTERN COAST OF LUZON BRINGING LIGHT RAINS
AND WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

*Weakening Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
bringing light rains across Western Luzon.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving North to NNW as it
passes very close to Batanes Group of Islands later this afternoon, and
shall dissipate just to the South of Taiwan later tomorrow.

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with its rainbands
sheared more or less 100 km southwest (SW) of its totally exposed Low

Level Circulation Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect

the western-half of Northern Luzon today - bringing light to moderate

rains especially along the mountain slopes & coastal areas. Residents

in low-lying areas & steep slopes must seek evacuation for possible

flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about
by this storm. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by LAWIN but is now very weak. This wind system is expected to

bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to
sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr across Western
Luzon including Metro Manila today. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and
flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river

banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile,
ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) & Southwest Windflow affecting Southern
Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread
scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon
or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.7º N...LONGITUDE 122.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 95 KM (50 NM) NE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 100 KM (55 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 135 KM (73 NM) SSE OF ITBAYAT, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 160 KM (85 NM) NNE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME THU AUGUST 28

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAGAYAN, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO,
KALINGA, ABRA & ILOCOS NORTE.

12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 20.8N 122.0E / 55-75 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 21.3N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 21.7N 120.9E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST POSITION: 19.4N 122.4E.
^THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE 27/06Z
WARNING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM
WEST. TD 14W HAS ALSO SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN LUZON DUE TO
A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE AND LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL FAIR OVER-
ALL WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS (JGSM, GFS AND ECMWF)...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 19.7N 121.9E / NW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

TD LAWIN (14W) now off the East Coast of Cagayan... [Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W]

Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) WED 27 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

LAWIN (14W) WHICH REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS

HAS WEAKENED BACK TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...EXPOSED CENTER NOW OFF
THE EAST COAST OF CAGAYAN...RAINCLOUDS DISPLACED ALONG NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LUZON BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS.

*The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Palawan, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region
& western sections of Luzon & Visayas.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to slow in its WNW track throughout

the forecast and shall cross the northern tip of Cagayan late tonight

approx 10 PM local time and may weaken further due to land interaction.

The 2 to 4-day medium range forecast shows LAWIN continuing on its snail-

pace movement across the northern coast of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, near

the same area where last week's KAREN passed by. LAWIN shall move across

the South China Sea through Friday and Saturday as a dissipating system.

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation has become disorganized with its rainbands

sheared south & west of its partially exposed Low Level Circulation Center

(LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect Central and Northern Luzon

today until tomorrow bringing light to moderate to at times heavy rains

especially along the mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep

slopes must seek evacuation for possible flooding & landslides due to the

anticipated heavy rains brought about by this storm. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by LAWIN across Bicol Region and Southwestern Luzon including

Metro Manila, Palawan & Western Visayas. This wind system is expected to

bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to

sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) & Southwest Windflow affecting Rest

of Visayas and Mindanao. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and

thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 27 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.1º N...LONGITUDE 122.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 110 KM (60 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 175 KM (95 NM) SE OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 275 KM (150 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BABUYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO,
KALINGA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, ILOCOS SUR & ILOCOS NORTE.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.5N 121.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.9N 120.7E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 19.8N 119.1E / 45-65 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 20.8N 118.3E / 45-65 KPH / N @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 17.9N 122.9E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 262258Z SSMI IMAGE
REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INCREASING NORTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR, TS 14W
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC AND ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE
DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE WEAK SYSTEM, AND VARIATION IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CUR-
RENTLY MOVING OVER EASTERN CHINA...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 18.3N 122.7E / NW @ 15 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TD LAWIN (14W) approaching Cagayan-Isabela... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN [14W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 27 AUGUST 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAWIN (14W) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY "CLOUD-FREE" (EXPOSED)

WITH MOST OF ITS THICK-RAIN CLOUDS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-

WESTERN PERIPHERY...STILL TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO NORTHERN LUZON.

*The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be enhanced by this system and is currently
bringing widespread rains across Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region & Western Luzon.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LAWIN is expected to continue moving in a slow-WNW

track throughout the forecast and shall be off the coast of Northern

Cagayan early tomorrow morning approx 2 AM local time and may become a

Tropical Storm (TS). The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows LAWIN

slowing down further into a snail-pace movement across the northern

coast of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, near the same area where last week's

KAREN passed by. LAWIN shall move across the South China Sea through

Saturday and Sunday as a weakening system.

+ EFFECTS: LAWIN's circulation remains disorganized with most of its

rainbands located south of its partially exposed Low Level Circulation

Center (LLCC). These rainclouds is expected to affect Central and Nor-

thern Luzon today until tomorrow bringing moderate to heavy rains es-

pecially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas must seek

higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the antici-

pated heavy rains brought about by this depression. Precautionary

measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be

enhanced by LAWIN across Bicol Region and Southwestern Luzon including

Metro Manila. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies

with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains &

winds not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and floo-

ding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river

banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 27 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.0º N...LONGITUDE 124.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 295 KM (160 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 260 KM (140 NM) NE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 27

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON. POLILLO
      ISLAND, LAGUNA, RIZAL, AURORA, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA
      ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, IFUGAO, QUIRINO, LA
      UNION, ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE & ISABELA.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 17.5N 123.6E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 28 AUGUST: 18.0N 122.6E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 AUGUST: 18.7N 121.3E / 45-65 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 AUGUST: 19.2N 120.3E / 45-65 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 AUGUST POSITION: 16.8N 124.7E.
^ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261024Z SSMI IMAGE INDIC-
ATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AFTER A
BRIEF WEAKENING PERIOD. EARLIER MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWED A FULLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT PERIOD, THE LLCC HAS
TRACKED INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS ANTICIPATED AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. THE SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) STATUS.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED AND ALL THE MODELS
ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE WEAK SYSTEM...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 27 AUGUST: 15.2N 122.8E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Thursday, August 28, 2008

TD LAWIN (14W) - Final Update

TD LAWIN (14W) weakening while approaching Batanes... [Update #006]

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

TD LAWIN (14W) now off the East Coast of Cagayan... [Update #005]

TD LAWIN (14W) approaching Cagayan-Isabela... [Update #004]

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