Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon VICENTE [FERDIE]

for Tuesday, 24 July 2012 [8:04 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).

VICENTE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON VICENTE (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 011
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 24 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

The powerful VICENTE (FERDIE) which rapidly intensified into a 220-km/hr Category 4 Typhoon last night has made landfall over Western Guangdong, near Chixizhen, China a few hours ago. Typhoon force winds has been felt across Hong Kong, Macau and parts of Western Guangdong. The weakening eye of the typhoon is now in the vicinity of Taishan, China.

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue July 24 2012
Location of Eye: 22.2� N Lat 112.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 82 km East of Macau
Distance 2: 144 km East of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 258 km ENE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 4: 421 km WSW of Shantou, China
Distance 5: 349 km NE of Haikou, Hainan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong-Guangxi Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Avg/Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PhT Tue Jul 24

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to move WNW for the next 12 to 24 hours and bend Westward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will traverse Southern China through Western Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces beginning today until Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, VICENTE will be moving parallel along the Chinese-Vietnamese Border.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected within the next 24 hours as Vicente (Ferdie) moves across land (Southwestern China). Complete dissipation is forecast on Wednesday evening or early Thursday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). VICENTE is a large/average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it traverses the rugged terrain of Southern China...or over Guangxi Province [2AM JUL 25: 22.9N 108.3E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipates along the Chinese-Vietnamese Border...just an area of low pressure [2AM JUL 26: 22.9N 103.8E @ 35kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

WEAKENING EYE - over Taishan, China. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting parts of Western Guangdong particularly Taishan-Chixizhen, China. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Hong Kong, Macau and Western Guangdong (between east of Zhanjiang up to east of Hong Kong). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Hainan and the rest of Southern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Hong Kong, Macau and Western Guangdong. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China, Western Taiwan and Western Luzon (Philippines). (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

The Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) over the Caroline Islands, near Palau Island has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) but remains weak and disorganized. Various dynamic computer models still continues to show possible development into a Tropical Depression within the next 3 to 4 days. Its center was located about 324 km SSW of Koror, Palau or 814 km SE of Mindanao, Philippines (4.5N 133.4E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and was moving NW @ 15 kph towards the Philippine Sea. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains LOW (<30% Chance).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON particularly the western sections. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY VICENTE (FERDIE)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY VICENTE (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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