Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD [FERDIE]

for Friday, 20 July 2012 [7:34 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 20 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TD (FERDIE).

TD MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 001
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 20 July 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/SatFixes/Forecast Models
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

The strong and broad Tropical Disturbance near the east coast of Cagayan has strengthened into Tropical Depression locally known as FERDIE (92W)...now approaching the Northeastern Tip of Luzon (Northern Cagayan)...thick rainbands continues to cover the whole of Luzon.

This disturbance will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Metro Manila, Palawan, and Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas tonight and tomorrow.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Batanes, and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress on TD (FERDIE).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri July 20 2012
Location of Center: 18.3� N Lat 122.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 77 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 127 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 140 km NNE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 4: 149 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 185 km SE of Calayan Island
Distance 6: 266 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 464 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 524 km North of Naga City/CWC
Distance 9: 1,005 km SE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Fri Jul 20

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

FERDIE is expected to continue moving WNW throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of FERDIE will pass very close the port town of Santa Ana in Cagayan before midnight tonight and move across the Balintang Channel Saturday morning. It will then be moving across the West Philippine Sea beginning Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon and will be approaching the shores of Western Guangdong on Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and FERDIE will become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves into the West Philippine Sea, away from Extreme Northern Luzon [2PM JUL 21: 19.6N 119.4E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues gaining strength as it moves across the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM JUL 22: 20.5N 116.8E @ 75kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Bears down the coast of Western Guangdong, just to the SW of Macau-Hong Kong Area...reaches its peak intensity [2PM JUL 23: 21.2N 112.6E @ 85kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Luzon. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TD (FERDIE)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0812.gif
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

NOT AVAILABLE
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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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