Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 09W [FERDIE]

for Saturday, 21 July 2012 [6:43 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 21 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on 09W (FERDIE).

09W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 21 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression 09W (FERDIE) has quickly moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...no longer a threat to the country. Occasional monsoon rains continues to affect Metro Manila and parts of Southern Tagalog & Central Luzon Provinces.

09W will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Metro Manila, Palawan, and Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 09W (FERDIE).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat July 21 2012
Location of Center: 19.2� N Lat 117.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 395 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 472 km West of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 400 km NW of Vigan City
Distance 4: 542 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 492 km WNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 510 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 468 km South of Shantou, China
Distance 8: 672 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 443 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 10: 486 km SE of Macau
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: Southern China
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sat Jul 21

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

09W (FERDIE) is expected to move West to WNW for the next 24 to 48 hours then bend more westward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 09W will pass about 165 km to the South of Hong Kong around midnight Monday and cross Western Guangdong's Southern Peninsula, passing very close to Zhanjiang, China by early Tuesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and 09W (Ferdie) will become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Sunday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it approaches the coastal areas of Hong Kong and Macau [2PM JUL 22: 20.5N 115.1E @ 65kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Continues gaining strength as it moves very near the coast of Guangdong Province, just to the WSW of Hong Kong [2PM JUL 23: 21.1N 111.8E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: At peak strength while moving along the shores of Southwestern Guangdong (off the Gulf of Tonkin) [2PM JUL 24: 21.3N 109.3E @ 95kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - its eastern outer part still affecting & spreading across the Coastal Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Pangasinan). Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 600 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of 09W (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional to continuous showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TD 09W (FERDIE)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 09W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 09W (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm