Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 08W [UNNAMED]

for Monday, 16 July 2012 [10:40 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 16 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on 08W.

08W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 16 July 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression 08W (UNNAMED) newly-formed to the ESE of Okinawa...currently intensifying but not yet a threat to any major Pacific Islands.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands and Kyushu, Japan should closely monitor the progress on 08W (UNNAMED).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon July 16 2012
Location of Center: 23.4� N Lat 137.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 296 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 379 km WSW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 465 km SW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,074 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1,670 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Jul 16

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

08W (UNNAMED) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 24 hours...turning more northwest to north-nothwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 08W will pass over Naje Island or about 270 km to the NE of Okinawa on Tuesday afternoon and will pass very near Cheju Island by mid-day Wednesday. 08W will make landfall along the Western part of South Korea Wednesday afternoon and will be in the vicinity of the North and South Korean Border early Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. An increase in strength will is forecast within the next 3 days as the system move WNW to NW across the warmer seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean. 08W will become a Tropical Storm (TS) tonight or early Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it accelerates WNW...approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain [2AM JUL 17: 26.3N 132.6E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving into the East China Sea as it continues to gain strength...approaching Cheju Island [2AM JUL 18: 30.9N 128.0E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly dissipating along the North and South Korean Border...no longer a Tropical Cyclone [2AM JUL 19: 38.4N 126.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - not yet affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the Southern Island of Japan on Tuesday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 08W (Unnamed). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 08W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0812.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 08W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 08W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm