Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS VICENTE [FERDIE]

for Saturday, 21 July 2012 [6:43 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).

VICENTE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 005
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 22 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

09W (FERDIE) has rapidly strengthened into a Tropical Storm overnight as it moves across the South China Sea (aka. West Philippine Sea)...now internationally named as VICENTE. Currently with 1-minute sustained winds of 85 km/hr and heading towards Southern China.

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Western and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Mindoro and NW Visayas incl. Boracay. Breezy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China incl. Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun July 22 2012
Location of Center: 19.0� N Lat 115.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 393 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 423 km SE of Macau
Distance 3: 514 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 557 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 5: 589 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 600 km West of Calayan Island
Distance 7: 609 km ESE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 8: 747 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southern China
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Jul 22

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to continue moving West to WNW throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will pass about 260 km to the SSW of Hong Kong early Monday morning and cross Western Guangdong's Southern Peninsula by late Monday evening. It will then make landfall over Northern Vietnam, just south of the Chinese-Vietnemese Border by early Wednesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center. VICENTE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: At near typhoon intensity...passing about 260 km to the south of Hong Kong Harbour [2AM JUL 23: 20.1N 113.3E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the coast of Western Guangdong, China...maintains its strength as it enters the Gulf of Tonkin [2AM JUL 24: 20.7N 109.7E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to make landfall along the shores of Northern Vietnam...about 166 km East of Hanoi [2AM JUL 25: 21.0N 107.4E @ 100kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...will reach the coastal areas of Western Guangdong & Eastern Hainan late Monday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Coastal Areas of Eastern Hainan and Southern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of 09W (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional to continuous showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP AND NORTHWESTERN VISAYAS including BORACAY. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS VICENTE (FERDIE)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS VICENTE (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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