Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KHANUN [ENTENG]

for Wednesday, 18 July 2012 [7:57 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 16 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KHANUN (ENTENG).

KHANUN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (ENTENG) UPDATE NUMBER 007
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 18 July 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm KHANUN (ENTENG) slows down while moving across the East China Sea...closer to Cheju Island and the Korean Peninsula.

Residents and visitors along Cheju Island and the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress on KHANUN (ENTENG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed July 18 2012
Location of Center: 29.6� N Lat 127.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 275 km NW of Amami Island
Distance 2: 353 km NNW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 410 km WSW of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 413 km SSE of Cheju Island
Distance 5: 450 km SW of Nagasaki, Japan
Distance 6: 566 km ESE of Shanghai, China
Distance 7: 653 SSW of Busan, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Cheju-Korea Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Jul 18

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KHANUN (ENTENG) is expected to continue moving north-northwest for the next 24 hours...turning northward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of KHANUN will pass just to the west of Cheju Island early Wednesday evening, passing near the west coast of South Korea early Thursday and make landfall over North Korea on Thursday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. KHANUN will start losing strength within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. KHANUN is a average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it turns North while moving along the West Coast of South Korea [2AM JUL 19: 35.2N 125.8E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly dissipates over North Korea after it makes landfall...no longer a Tropical Cyclone [2AM JUL 20: 40.4N 125.9E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas...will reach Cheju Island tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Cheju Island, Western Kyushu and the Southern Coast of South Korea. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of Khanun (Enteng). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern Japan. (click shere to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA), a new system developing over the Philippine Sea, East of Luzon. Various dynamic computer models continue to show the development into a Tropical Depression within the next 2 to 3 days. Its center was located about 992 km SE of Palau or 1,835 km SE of Mindanao (15.5N 133.8E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and has remained almost stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains LOW (<30%).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS KHANUN (ENTENG)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Khanun's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KHANUN (ENTENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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