Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):
Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).
SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 31 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Typhoon SAOLA (GENER) stalls near the east of Batanes Group of Islands. Rainbands with winds continues to spread and lash Northern Luzon and Eastern Taiwan particularly Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Islands.
This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Rest of Luzon, Bicol Region, Mindoro, and Western Visayas including Palawan today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue July 31 2012
Location of Eye: 20.8� N Lat 124.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 211 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 229 km East of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 324 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 310 km NE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 359 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 430 km NNE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 412 km South of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 8: 459 km NE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 433 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 10: 528 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 11: 765 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Northern Taiwan-SE China
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Thursday [6AM-6PM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
SAOLA (GENER) is expected to resume moving slowly NNW for the next 24 to 48 hours with a gradual increase in its forward speed, and will slightly bend NW-ward after 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will remain over the open sea (North Philippine Sea)...passing well to the ENE of Basco, Batanes today til Wednesday, and will be approaching the coast of Northern & NE Taiwan by late Wednesday evening. By Thursday morning, SAOLA will be passing very close to Taiwan as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and will be just along the coast of Southeastern China early Friday morning.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Category 2 Typhoon on Wednesday.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 15 kilometers (08 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles). SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers (540 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Storm (TS) DAMREY (11W) still over the far Western Pacific Ocean as it moves rapidly WNW...threatens Southern Japan. Its center was located about 137 km NNW of Chichi Jima or 380 km NNE of Iwo To (28.2N 141.7E)...with maximum sustained winds of 100 kph and is forecast to move NW @ 31 kph towards the Southern Japan. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, REST OF LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, WESTERN VISAYAS and PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted
External Links for TY SAOLA (GENER)
PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on either 1-minute average (JTWC) or 10-minute average (JMA). Pressure Estimates by: NRL & RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE VUE Digital Weather Station.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 11:30 AM TO 1:30 PM (03:30-05:30 GMT) TODAY.
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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