Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SAOLA [GENER]

for Saturday, 28 July 2012 [1:10 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).

SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 28 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

The Tropical Depression over the Philippine Sea, east of Bicol Region has strengthened into a Tropical Storm...now internationally known as SAOLA (GENER). Saola is a kind of ox, an endangered animal only found in the deep forests of Vietnam and Laos. Currently moving WNW during the past 6 hours. Its outer rainbands will continue to spread across Northern Visayas and Bicol Region.

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Bicol Region, Visayas, Palawan and Western Mindanao this weekend. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat July 28 2012
Location of Center: 14.8� N Lat 126.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 219 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 244 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 272 km ENE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 302 km NE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 321 km NE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 314 km ENE of Siruma, CamSur
Distance 7: 340 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 353 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 456 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 10: 473 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 11: 538 km East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sat Jul 28

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SAOLA (GENER) is expected to move NW for the next 24 hours with a decrease in its forward speed, and will track NNW-ward across the Northern Philippine Sea. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will remain over the open sea (North Philippine Sea) throughout the forecast period.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Category 1 Typhoon on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY NOON: Continues to intensify as it slows down while moving NW across the warm Philippine Sea...about 268 km ESE of Palanan Bay, Isabela [12PM JUL 29: 16.8N 125.0E @ 75kph].
MONDAY NOON: Still intensifying over the Northern Philippine Sea, turns NNW slowly...about 232 km East of Santa Ana, Cagayan [12PM JUL 30: 18.4N 124.4E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches the Batanes Group of Islands...about 186 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [12PM JUL 31: 20.0N 123.7E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western outer rainbands affecting & spreading across Northern Visayas & Bicol Region. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

The other Tropical Depression (TD) over the far Western Pacific Ocean has track Westward during the past 6 hours...not a threat to land. Its center was located about 490 km ESE of Chichi Jima or 568 km ENE of Iwo To (26.0N 146.8E)...with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph and was moving West slowly towards the sea south of Japan. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional to widespread showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS and WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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