Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS VICENTE [FERDIE]

for Monday, 23 July 2012 [8:28 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).

VICENTE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 008
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 23 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm VICENTE (FERDIE) gained more strength after remaining almost stationary during the past 10 hours...now drifting slowly northwestward...Outermost rainbands continues to spread across Hainan and Guangdong Province, China.

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Luzon incl. Metro Manila & Bicol Region, Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Boracay, Visayas & Palawan. Breezy conditions & cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China incl. Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon July 23 2012
Location of Center: 19.3� N Lat 115.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 333 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 354 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 472 km East of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 489 km SSW of Shantou, China
Distance 5: 500 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 519 km ESE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 7: 602 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 8: 833 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Hainan-West Guangdong Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PhT Mon Jul 23

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to move NW for the next 24 hours and bend WNW to Westward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will pass about 235 km to the SW of Hong Kong Monday evening and make landfall over Western Guangdong, just east of Zhanjiang City on Tuesday afternoon. By Thursday morning, the system will be over Northern Vietnam, just south of the Vietnamese-Chinese Border.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and Vicente (Ferdie) may become a Typhoon tonight or early Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center. VICENTE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns NW-ward while over the South China Sea...becomes a Category 1 Typhoon, about 187 km SW of Hong Kong [2AM JUL 24: 20.8N 112.6E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall and crosses Guangdong Province, China [2AM JUL 25: 22.0N 109.1E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipates over Northern Vietnam as an area of low pressure [2AM JUL 26: 22.3N 105.6E @ 35kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...will reach the coastal areas of Western Guangdong & Eastern Hainan late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Hainan and Southern China particularly Guangdong Province. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Hainan Island and Southern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Vietnam and Western Luzon (Philippines). (click shere to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

A new and developing Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) has been detected over the Caroline Islands, near Palau Island. Various dynamic computer models show possible development into a Tropical Depression within the next 3 days. Its center was located about 538 km SE of Koror, Palau or 1,365 km ESE of Mindanao, Philippines (4.7N 138.6E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and was moving WNW @ 15 kph towards the Philippine Sea. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is LOW (<30% Chance).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, & MARINDUQUE, AND NORTHERN VISAYAS including BORACAY, ROMBLON & CALAMIAN GROUP. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS VICENTE (FERDIE)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS VICENTE (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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