Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SAOLA [GENER]

for Monday, 30 July 2012 [8:15 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).

SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 30 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm SAOLA (GENER) still heading north over the past 12 hours as it intensified further...may become a Typhoon today. Its western outer rainbands continues to spread across Northern Luzon.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Rest of Luzon, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Visayas, and Palawan today. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon July 30 2012
Location of Center: 19.6� N Lat 125.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 348 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 359 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 389 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 400 km ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 401 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 440 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 507 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 518 km ENE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 704 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 711 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 11: 722 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Northern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Thursday [2AM-3PM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SAOLA (GENER) is expected to resume moving NNW for the next 24 to 48 hours with a decrease in its forward speed, and will slightly bend NW-ward after 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will remain over the open sea (North Philippine Sea)...passing well to the ENE of Basco, Batanes Monday evening, and approaching the coast of Northeastern Taiwan by Wednesday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Typhoon today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center. SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a minimal Typhoon as it passes to the ENE of the Batanes Group...about 226 km ENE of Basco [6AM JUL 31: 21.3N 124.0E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves closer to the coast of Eastern Taiwan...about 200 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 01: 23.1N 123.3E @ 165kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Reaches Category 3 as it bears down the coast of Northeastern Taiwan...about 87 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan [6AM AUG 02: 24.7N 122.4E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western & southwestern outer rainbands affecting & spreading across Northern Luzon. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines and Southeastern China. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Storm (TS) DAMREY (11W) still over the far Western Pacific Ocean as it moves very slowly...still no threat to land. Its center was located about 371 km SE of Chichi Jima or 397 km ENE of Iwo To (25.3N 145.2E)...with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph and is forecast to move WSW slowly towards the Southern Islands of Japan. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional to widespread showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, REST OF LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS and PALAWAN. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation